NYT
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The New York Times Company (NYT) closed at $70.21 as of 2026-09-18, trading 34.5% above its 200-week moving average of $52.22. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 28.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2737 weeks of data, NYT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NYT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.5%.
With a market cap of $11.3 billion, NYT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.1%. Return on equity stands at 19.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NYT would have grown to $756, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. NYT has returned 6.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 69.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NYT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NYT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying NYT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.9% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +17.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.2% vs +40.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NYT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NYT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NYT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $62.19 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $65.02 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $68.12 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $71.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $75.29 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.67 | $0.69 | +3.6% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.47 | $0.61 | +30.2% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.88 | $0.89 | +1.1% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.53 | $0.59 | +10.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NYT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NYT has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +15.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | May 1974 | 6 | 14.8% | +3.5% | +13797.5% |
| Jun 1974 | Mar 1975 | 38 | 38.7% | -14.6% | +12205.1% |
| May 1975 | Jun 1975 | 4 | 6.8% | +18.8% | +13797.5% |
| Oct 1975 | Nov 1975 | 3 | 1.5% | +17.0% | +13323.8% |
| Nov 1975 | Dec 1975 | 2 | 4.9% | +35.2% | +13323.8% |
| Mar 1980 | May 1980 | 11 | 13.3% | +47.3% | +6973.6% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 3 | 10.6% | -3.0% | +810.6% |
| Jan 1988 | Feb 1988 | 3 | 1.4% | -2.3% | +759.1% |
| Apr 1988 | May 1989 | 57 | 18.7% | +1.0% | +741.4% |
| Jun 1989 | Jul 1989 | 3 | 3.1% | -19.0% | +670.0% |
| Jul 1989 | Dec 1991 | 126 | 40.3% | -32.5% | +660.8% |
| Oct 1992 | Oct 1992 | 1 | 1.1% | +6.4% | +831.3% |
| Jun 1993 | Jun 1993 | 1 | 0.4% | +6.5% | +817.7% |
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 2 | 2.4% | +6.1% | +832.0% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | 0.9% | +1.7% | +827.0% |
| Jun 1994 | Aug 1994 | 8 | 2.5% | +0.9% | +792.9% |
| Sep 1994 | Jul 1995 | 45 | 14.3% | +8.8% | +778.6% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2012 | 421 | 79.6% | -25.3% | +117.7% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 3 | 1.7% | +69.4% | +888.7% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 1 | 0.8% | +87.6% | +867.1% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 7 | 3.5% | +45.3% | +537.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 10 | 12.4% | +58.1% | +525.9% |
| May 2022 | Feb 2023 | 40 | 26.9% | +17.7% | +114.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 5.8% | +19.9% | +100.2% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 7 | 7.6% | +32.2% | +98.6% |
| Average | 32 | — | +15.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NYT below its 200-week moving average?
No. The New York Times Company (NYT) is currently 34.5% above its 200-week moving average of $52.22. It would need to fall to $52.22 to cross below the line.
What is NYT's 200-week moving average price?
The New York Times Company's 200-week moving average is $52.22 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NYT drops below its 200-week moving average?
NYT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is NYT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NYT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 4.1%. Return on equity is 19.7%. Price-to-book is 5.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NYT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in NYT would have grown to $756, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 6.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NYT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NYT pay a dividend?
Yes. The New York Times Company currently pays a dividend yield of 131.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18