NXTC
NextCure, Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
NextCure, Inc. (NXTC) closed at $2.02 as of 2026-06-19, trading 86.7% below its 200-week moving average of $15.23. This places NXTC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -86.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 15, NXTC is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.63 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 323 weeks of data, NXTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 160 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -73.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $7 million, NXTC is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -132.4%. The stock trades at 0.3x book value.
Share count has increased 51.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NXTC would have grown to $0, compared to $280 for the S&P 500. NXTC has returned -57.1% annualized vs 17.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NXTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NXTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying NXTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -75.0% after 12 months (median -74.0%), compared to +43.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -87.5% vs +43.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NXTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NXTC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NXTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +-73.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 3.6% | -73.9% | -99.5% |
| May 2020 | Ongoing | 318+ | 92.2% | Ongoing | -99.5% |
| Average | 160 | — | +-73.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NXTC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, NextCure, Inc. (NXTC) is trading 86.7% below its 200-week moving average of $15.23. The current price is $2.02.
What is NXTC's 200-week moving average price?
NextCure, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.23 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NXTC drops below its 200-week moving average?
NXTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -73.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 160 weeks on average.
Is NXTC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NXTC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 15 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -132.4%. Price-to-book is 0.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NXTC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.2 years, $100 invested in NXTC would have grown to $0, compared to $280 for the S&P 500. That's -57.1% annualized vs 17.9% for the index. NXTC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19