NXST
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Communication Services - Broadcasting Investor Relations →
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) closed at $156.53 as of 2026-09-18, trading 4.2% below its 200-week moving average of $163.39. This places NXST in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1142 weeks of data, NXST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NXST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +50.1%.
With a market cap of $4.8 billion, NXST is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 16.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 7.4%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 17.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NXST would have grown to $2649, compared to $964 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.1% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming NXST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NXST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NXST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying NXST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +36.9% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +75.9% vs +41.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NXST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NXST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NXST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $161.03 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $171.03 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $182.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $195.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $210.18 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $7.47 | $4.98 | -33.4% |
| 2026-05-07 | $4.39 | $6.61 | +50.6% |
| 2026-02-26 | $3.55 | $5.48 | +54.2% |
| 2025-11-06 | $1.83 | $1.05 | -42.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NXST's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NXST has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +50.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2004 | Feb 2007 | 119 | 52.7% | -42.1% | +2947.6% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2010 | 109 | 90.6% | -90.0% | +3246.2% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 10.1% | +82.1% | +4619.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 7 | 25.3% | +77.3% | +4969.8% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 7.8% | +94.6% | +4452.3% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 2 | 7.5% | +72.5% | +4414.7% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +91.3% | +475.9% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 9 | 33.7% | +216.1% | +283.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Sep 2023 | 1 | 2.3% | +25.5% | +31.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.7% | +29.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.2% | +31.3% | +30.1% |
| Jan 2025 | Feb 2025 | 7 | 3.0% | +44.4% | +11.4% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 5.0% | +22.0% | +7.9% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 4.2% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 19 | — | +50.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NXST below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is trading 4.2% below its 200-week moving average of $163.39. The current price is $156.53.
What is NXST's 200-week moving average price?
Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $163.39 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NXST drops below its 200-week moving average?
NXST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +50.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is NXST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NXST as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 16.6%. Return on equity is 7.4%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NXST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.9 years, $100 invested in NXST would have grown to $2649, compared to $964 for the S&P 500. That's 16.1% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. NXST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NXST pay a dividend?
Yes. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 475.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18