NXST
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Communication Services - Broadcasting Investor Relations →
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) closed at $190.53 as of 2026-07-31, trading 16.2% above its 200-week moving average of $163.95. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 12.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1135 weeks of data, NXST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NXST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +50.1%.
With a market cap of $5.8 billion, NXST is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 6.6%. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 17.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NXST would have grown to $3192, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.3% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming NXST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NXST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NXST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying NXST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +36.9% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +19.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +75.9% vs +41.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NXST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NXST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NXST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $162.30 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $173.61 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $186.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $201.75 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $219.54 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NXST's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NXST has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +50.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2004 | Feb 2007 | 119 | 52.7% | -42.1% | +3572.9% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2010 | 109 | 90.6% | -90.0% | +3932.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 10.1% | +82.1% | +5587.9% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 7 | 25.3% | +77.3% | +6010.2% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 7.8% | +94.6% | +5386.5% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 2 | 7.5% | +72.5% | +5341.1% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +91.3% | +594.1% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 9 | 33.7% | +216.1% | +362.0% |
| Sep 2023 | Sep 2023 | 1 | 2.3% | +25.5% | +58.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.7% | +56.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.2% | +31.3% | +56.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Feb 2025 | 7 | 3.0% | +44.4% | +34.3% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 5.0% | +22.0% | +30.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +50.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NXST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is currently 16.2% above its 200-week moving average of $163.95. It would need to fall to $163.95 to cross below the line.
What is NXST's 200-week moving average price?
Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $163.95 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NXST drops below its 200-week moving average?
NXST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +50.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is NXST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NXST as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 11.4%. Return on equity is 6.6%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NXST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.8 years, $100 invested in NXST would have grown to $3192, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. That's 17.3% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. NXST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NXST pay a dividend?
Yes. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 387.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31