NXPI
NXP Semiconductors N.V. Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) closed at $313.27 as of 2026-06-19, trading 51.5% above its 200-week moving average of $206.82. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 47.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 84, NXPI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 780 weeks of data, NXPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NXPI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +35.0%.
With a market cap of $79.1 billion, NXPI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.5%. Return on equity stands at 25.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.2x book value.
Over the past 15 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NXPI would have grown to $1792, compared to $752 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.2% vs 14.4% for the index — confirming NXPI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NXPI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NXPI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying NXPI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +46.5% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +20.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +121.7% vs +49.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NXPI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NXPI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NXPI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $156.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $181.52 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $216.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $268.80 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $353.88 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NXPI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NXPI has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +35.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2011 | Jan 2012 | 25 | 32.1% | +20.4% | +1691.5% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 6.5% | +53.7% | +1703.3% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 2.0% | +59.6% | +1638.7% |
| Jul 2018 | Apr 2019 | 36 | 27.7% | +9.0% | +273.1% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 8.2% | -3.7% | +269.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 12 | 27.1% | +94.6% | +264.4% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 4.2% | +43.8% | +142.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 18.2% | +2.3% | +68.0% |
| Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | 3 | 3.0% | N/A | +60.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 4 | 4.9% | N/A | +65.0% |
| Average | 10 | — | +35.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NXPI below its 200-week moving average?
No. NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) is currently 51.5% above its 200-week moving average of $206.82. It would need to fall to $206.82 to cross below the line.
What is NXPI's 200-week moving average price?
NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s 200-week moving average is $206.82 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NXPI drops below its 200-week moving average?
NXPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +35.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is NXPI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NXPI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 84 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.5%. Return on equity is 25.8%. Price-to-book is 7.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NXPI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15 years, $100 invested in NXPI would have grown to $1792, compared to $752 for the S&P 500. That's 21.2% annualized vs 14.4% for the index. NXPI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NXPI pay a dividend?
Yes. NXP Semiconductors N.V. currently pays a dividend yield of 134.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19