NWN
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Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) closed at $49.02 as of 2026-06-19, trading 23.8% above its 200-week moving average of $39.59. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 26.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, NWN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NWN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.6%.
With a market cap of $2.1 billion, NWN is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.1%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 17.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NWN would have grown to $1013, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. NWN has returned 7.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NWN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NWN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying NWN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.3% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +16.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.4% vs +19.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NWN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. NWN currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NWN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NWN has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +11.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Jan 1976 | 101 | 34.5% | -16.4% | +3807.0% |
| Jan 1981 | Mar 1981 | 7 | 9.5% | +1.1% | +3000.1% |
| Mar 1981 | Apr 1983 | 107 | 17.6% | -2.2% | +2966.7% |
| Apr 1983 | May 1983 | 1 | 1.6% | +10.2% | +2810.3% |
| Jul 1983 | Sep 1983 | 6 | 5.5% | +8.2% | +2810.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | 4.6% | +11.5% | +1827.1% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 4 | 10.6% | +16.2% | +1827.1% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.3% | +1705.1% |
| Feb 1989 | Apr 1989 | 8 | 6.2% | +25.8% | +1693.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 2.2% | +42.3% | +1531.2% |
| Mar 1999 | May 1999 | 6 | 3.7% | -9.6% | +565.1% |
| Dec 1999 | Jun 2000 | 26 | 19.0% | +25.2% | +531.8% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 5 | 2.0% | +17.4% | +506.9% |
| Sep 2000 | Oct 2000 | 3 | 0.4% | +8.2% | +495.3% |
| Apr 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.9% | +40.9% | +485.1% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 1.1% | +23.5% | +141.6% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 2 | 0.9% | +5.3% | +96.5% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 3 | 1.6% | +15.3% | +92.7% |
| Aug 2013 | Oct 2013 | 9 | 5.0% | +11.1% | +91.1% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 1 | 1.0% | +17.7% | +88.8% |
| Dec 2013 | Feb 2014 | 6 | 3.2% | +22.9% | +87.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 8.0% | -5.0% | +10.0% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 2.0% | -4.0% | +7.2% |
| Jun 2020 | Feb 2022 | 90 | 26.4% | +0.5% | +11.1% |
| Mar 2022 | May 2022 | 10 | 12.6% | -6.6% | +12.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2024 | 127 | 21.4% | -14.5% | +13.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2025 | 9 | 7.4% | +23.1% | +32.4% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 4 | 0.9% | +30.9% | +28.9% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +28.3% |
| Average | 19 | — | +11.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) is currently 23.8% above its 200-week moving average of $39.59. It would need to fall to $39.59 to cross below the line.
What is NWN's 200-week moving average price?
Northwest Natural Holding Company's 200-week moving average is $39.59 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NWN drops below its 200-week moving average?
NWN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is NWN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NWN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 8.1%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NWN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NWN would have grown to $1013, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 7.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NWN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NWN pay a dividend?
Yes. Northwest Natural Holding Company currently pays a dividend yield of 399.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19