NWN
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Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) closed at $48.34 as of 2026-09-18, trading 21.1% above its 200-week moving average of $39.92. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 21.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, NWN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NWN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.6%.
With a market cap of $2.0 billion, NWN is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.3%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 17.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NWN would have grown to $995, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. NWN has returned 7.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NWN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NWN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying NWN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.4% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.4% vs +19.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NWN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. NWN currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.07 | $0.01 | +114.3% |
| 2026-05-06 | $2.40 | $2.33 | -3.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $1.36 | $1.39 | +2.2% |
| 2025-11-05 | $-0.83 | $-0.73 | +11.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NWN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NWN has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +11.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Jan 1976 | 101 | 34.5% | -16.4% | +3791.1% |
| Jan 1981 | Mar 1981 | 7 | 9.5% | +1.1% | +2987.5% |
| Mar 1981 | Apr 1983 | 107 | 17.6% | -2.2% | +2954.3% |
| Apr 1983 | May 1983 | 1 | 1.6% | +10.2% | +2798.5% |
| Jul 1983 | Sep 1983 | 6 | 5.5% | +8.2% | +2798.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | 4.6% | +11.5% | +1819.3% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 4 | 10.6% | +16.2% | +1819.3% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.3% | +1697.8% |
| Feb 1989 | Apr 1989 | 8 | 6.2% | +25.8% | +1686.5% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 2.2% | +42.3% | +1524.6% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 5 | 3.8% | -9.6% | +562.4% |
| Dec 1999 | Jun 2000 | 26 | 19.1% | +25.2% | +529.3% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 5 | 1.2% | +17.4% | +504.4% |
| Sep 2000 | Oct 2000 | 3 | 0.5% | +8.2% | +492.8% |
| Apr 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 1.0% | +40.9% | +482.7% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 1.2% | +23.5% | +140.6% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 2 | 1.0% | +5.3% | +95.7% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 3 | 1.7% | +15.3% | +91.9% |
| Aug 2013 | Oct 2013 | 9 | 5.1% | +11.1% | +90.3% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 1 | 1.1% | +17.7% | +88.1% |
| Dec 2013 | Feb 2014 | 6 | 3.3% | +22.9% | +86.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 8.0% | -5.0% | +9.5% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 2.1% | -4.0% | +6.7% |
| Jun 2020 | Feb 2022 | 90 | 26.5% | +0.5% | +10.7% |
| Mar 2022 | May 2022 | 10 | 11.8% | -6.6% | +12.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2024 | 127 | 21.5% | -14.5% | +13.1% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2025 | 9 | 7.5% | +23.1% | +31.8% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 4 | 1.0% | +30.9% | +28.3% |
| Average | 20 | — | +11.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) is currently 21.1% above its 200-week moving average of $39.92. It would need to fall to $39.92 to cross below the line.
What is NWN's 200-week moving average price?
Northwest Natural Holding Company's 200-week moving average is $39.92 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NWN drops below its 200-week moving average?
NWN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is NWN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NWN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 8.3%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NWN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in NWN would have grown to $995, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 7.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NWN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NWN pay a dividend?
Yes. Northwest Natural Holding Company currently pays a dividend yield of 408.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18