NWL
Newell Brands Inc. Consumer Defensive - Household & Personal Products Investor Relations →
Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) closed at $5.60 as of 2026-07-31, trading 19.9% below its 200-week moving average of $6.99. This places NWL in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -27.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, NWL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 46 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NWL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.5%.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, NWL is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 18.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -11.2%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NWL would have grown to $83, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. NWL has returned -0.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NWL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NWL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying NWL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -9.9% after 12 months (median -13.0%), compared to +10.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 27% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +8.6% vs +27.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NWL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NWL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NWL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $3.01 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $3.40 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $3.92 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $4.63 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $5.64 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NWL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NWL has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +28.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 1 | 1.1% | +161.7% | +2071.3% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 11 | 4.8% | +235.8% | +2091.8% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 6.4% | +150.8% | +543.0% |
| Jun 1993 | Aug 1993 | 5 | 3.1% | +45.4% | -1.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Feb 2002 | 130 | 47.2% | -18.7% | -58.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 2 | 5.4% | +4.5% | -54.4% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 1 | 0.4% | -9.3% | -55.1% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 2 | 6.7% | +3.8% | -51.4% |
| Jul 2003 | Feb 2004 | 29 | 17.7% | -3.1% | -46.6% |
| Mar 2004 | Feb 2006 | 100 | 23.2% | -8.8% | -51.8% |
| Dec 2007 | Sep 2010 | 142 | 78.1% | -53.7% | -55.8% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 4 | 2.0% | -7.5% | -44.6% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 9.3% | +20.5% | -36.0% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 15 | 24.8% | +17.6% | -37.7% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 4.1% | +53.0% | -33.2% |
| Oct 2017 | Jan 2021 | 168 | 60.4% | -56.5% | -79.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.1% | -50.4% | -62.4% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 205+ | 68.2% | Ongoing | -61.6% |
| Average | 46 | — | +28.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) is trading 19.9% below its 200-week moving average of $6.99. The current price is $5.60.
What is NWL's 200-week moving average price?
Newell Brands Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $6.99 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NWL drops below its 200-week moving average?
NWL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +28.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 46 weeks on average.
Is NWL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NWL as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 64. Free cash flow yield is 18.2%. Return on equity is -11.2%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NWL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in NWL would have grown to $83, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's -0.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NWL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NWL pay a dividend?
Yes. Newell Brands Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 545.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31