NVS
Novartis AG Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Novartis AG (NVS) closed at $140.37 as of 2026-09-18, trading 29.3% above its 200-week moving average of $108.57. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 26.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1510 weeks of data, NVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.8%.
With a market cap of $266.8 billion, NVS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 30.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 29 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVS would have grown to $908, compared to $1361 for the S&P 500. NVS has returned 7.9% annualized vs 9.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NVS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying NVS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.9% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +1.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +15.7% vs +7.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NVS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NVS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $142.40 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $148.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $154.14 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $160.77 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $167.99 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | $2.15 | $2.41 | +12.2% |
| 2026-04-27 | $1.65 | $1.65 | — |
| 2026-02-04 | $2.00 | $2.03 | +1.3% |
| 2025-10-28 | $2.31 | $2.25 | -2.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NVS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NVS has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +8.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1999 | Nov 1999 | 29 | 10.2% | -6.7% | +816.5% |
| Nov 1999 | Jun 2000 | 32 | 20.5% | +5.3% | +840.6% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | -8.7% | +840.6% |
| Sep 2000 | Sep 2000 | 2 | 5.1% | +1.5% | +884.3% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 3 | 1.8% | +6.4% | +829.9% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 1.0% | +5.6% | +807.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Sep 2001 | 15 | 13.0% | +3.0% | +802.3% |
| Oct 2001 | Mar 2002 | 20 | 9.3% | +4.1% | +806.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 9.0% | +15.4% | +893.2% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 4 | 3.9% | +18.6% | +816.1% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 8 | 3.4% | +31.5% | +831.4% |
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2008 | 9 | 5.9% | -7.5% | +526.4% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 2 | 5.3% | -18.7% | +543.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jun 2008 | 1 | 0.9% | -12.5% | +509.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 29.5% | +19.3% | +596.7% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 5 | 5.8% | +32.7% | +499.3% |
| Feb 2016 | May 2016 | 16 | 6.4% | +3.3% | +215.7% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +16.1% | +192.9% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +12.8% | +187.1% |
| Sep 2016 | May 2017 | 32 | 14.8% | +12.7% | +186.0% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +22.8% | +167.6% |
| Apr 2018 | Jul 2018 | 12 | 4.7% | +13.0% | +169.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 | 6.6% | +31.9% | +103.8% |
| Average | 11 | — | +8.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Novartis AG (NVS) is currently 29.3% above its 200-week moving average of $108.57. It would need to fall to $108.57 to cross below the line.
What is NVS's 200-week moving average price?
Novartis AG's 200-week moving average is $108.57 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NVS drops below its 200-week moving average?
NVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is NVS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NVS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 30.3%. Price-to-book is 6.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NVS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29 years, $100 invested in NVS would have grown to $908, compared to $1361 for the S&P 500. That's 7.9% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. NVS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NVS pay a dividend?
Yes. Novartis AG currently pays a dividend yield of 338.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18