NVS
Novartis AG Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Novartis AG (NVS) closed at $156.15 as of 2026-07-31, trading 47.7% above its 200-week moving average of $105.70. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 47.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.22 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1503 weeks of data, NVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.8%.
With a market cap of $296.8 billion, NVS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 30.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVS would have grown to $1010, compared to $1331 for the S&P 500. NVS has returned 8.4% annualized vs 9.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NVS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying NVS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.9% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +1.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +15.7% vs +7.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NVS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NVS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $138.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $148.99 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $161.26 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $175.73 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $193.05 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NVS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NVS has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +8.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1999 | Nov 1999 | 29 | 10.2% | -6.7% | +919.5% |
| Nov 1999 | Jun 2000 | 32 | 20.5% | +5.3% | +946.4% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | -8.7% | +946.4% |
| Sep 2000 | Sep 2000 | 2 | 5.1% | +1.5% | +995.0% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 3 | 1.8% | +6.4% | +934.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 1.0% | +5.6% | +909.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Sep 2001 | 15 | 13.0% | +3.0% | +903.7% |
| Oct 2001 | Mar 2002 | 20 | 9.3% | +4.1% | +908.5% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 9.0% | +15.4% | +1004.8% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 4 | 3.9% | +18.6% | +919.1% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 8 | 3.4% | +31.5% | +936.2% |
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2008 | 9 | 5.9% | -7.5% | +596.8% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 2 | 5.3% | -18.7% | +615.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jun 2008 | 1 | 0.9% | -12.5% | +578.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 29.5% | +19.3% | +675.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 5 | 5.8% | +32.7% | +566.7% |
| Feb 2016 | May 2016 | 16 | 6.4% | +3.3% | +251.1% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +16.1% | +225.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +12.8% | +219.4% |
| Sep 2016 | May 2017 | 32 | 14.8% | +12.7% | +218.2% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +22.8% | +197.6% |
| Apr 2018 | Jul 2018 | 12 | 4.7% | +13.0% | +200.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 | 6.6% | +31.9% | +126.8% |
| Average | 11 | — | +8.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Novartis AG (NVS) is currently 47.7% above its 200-week moving average of $105.70. It would need to fall to $105.70 to cross below the line.
What is NVS's 200-week moving average price?
Novartis AG's 200-week moving average is $105.70 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NVS drops below its 200-week moving average?
NVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is NVS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NVS as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 30.3%. Price-to-book is 7.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NVS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in NVS would have grown to $1010, compared to $1331 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. NVS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NVS pay a dividend?
Yes. Novartis AG currently pays a dividend yield of 299.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31