NVS
Novartis AG Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Novartis AG (NVS) closed at $146.57 as of 2026-05-01, trading 46.0% above its 200-week moving average of $100.38. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 45.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1490 weeks of data, NVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.6%.
With a market cap of $279.7 billion, NVS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 34.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVS would have grown to $948, compared to $1277 for the S&P 500. NVS has returned 8.2% annualized vs 9.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NVS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying NVS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.8% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +2.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.0% vs +8.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NVS has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +9.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1999 | Nov 1999 | 29 | 10.2% | -6.7% | +857.0% |
| Nov 1999 | Jun 2000 | 32 | 20.5% | +2.5% | +882.2% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | -8.7% | +882.2% |
| Sep 2000 | Sep 2000 | 2 | 5.1% | +1.5% | +927.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 3 | 1.8% | +6.4% | +871.0% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 2.3% | +5.5% | +860.5% |
| Jun 2001 | Sep 2001 | 15 | 13.0% | +3.0% | +842.1% |
| Oct 2001 | Mar 2002 | 20 | 9.2% | +4.1% | +846.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 9.0% | +15.4% | +937.1% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 4 | 3.8% | +18.6% | +856.5% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 8 | 3.4% | +31.5% | +872.6% |
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2008 | 9 | 5.8% | -7.5% | +554.1% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 2 | 5.2% | -18.7% | +571.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Jun 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -12.5% | +536.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 29.6% | +19.3% | +627.5% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 5 | 5.8% | +32.7% | +525.8% |
| Feb 2016 | May 2016 | 16 | 7.5% | +3.3% | +229.6% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | +16.1% | +205.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | +12.8% | +199.8% |
| Sep 2016 | May 2017 | 32 | 14.8% | +12.7% | +198.6% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | +22.8% | +179.4% |
| Apr 2018 | Jul 2018 | 12 | 4.7% | +13.0% | +181.8% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 | 6.5% | +31.9% | +112.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 2.4% | +30.3% | +110.3% |
| Average | 11 | — | +9.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Novartis AG (NVS) is currently 46.0% above its 200-week moving average of $100.38. It would need to fall to $100.38 to cross below the line.
What is NVS's 200-week moving average price?
Novartis AG's 200-week moving average is $100.38 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NVS drops below its 200-week moving average?
NVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is NVS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NVS as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 34.9%. Price-to-book is 6.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NVS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.6 years, $100 invested in NVS would have grown to $948, compared to $1277 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. NVS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NVS pay a dividend?
Yes. Novartis AG currently pays a dividend yield of 323.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01