NVS
Novartis AG Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Novartis AG (NVS) closed at $156.42 as of 2026-02-02, trading 58.5% above its 200-week moving average of $98.66. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 51.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 89, NVS is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1478 weeks of data, NVS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.6%.
With a market cap of $302.4 billion, NVS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 30.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVS would have grown to $982, compared to $1224 for the S&P 500. NVS has returned 8.4% annualized vs 9.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: NVS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying NVS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.8% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +2.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.0% vs +8.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NVS has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +9.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1999 | Nov 1999 | 29 | 10.2% | -6.7% | +891.1% |
| Nov 1999 | Jun 2000 | 32 | 20.5% | +2.5% | +917.2% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | -8.7% | +917.2% |
| Sep 2000 | Sep 2000 | 2 | 5.1% | +1.5% | +964.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 3 | 1.8% | +6.4% | +905.6% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 2.3% | +5.5% | +894.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Sep 2001 | 15 | 13.0% | +3.0% | +875.7% |
| Oct 2001 | Mar 2002 | 20 | 9.2% | +4.1% | +880.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 9.0% | +15.4% | +974.1% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 4 | 3.8% | +18.6% | +890.7% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 8 | 3.4% | +31.5% | +907.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2008 | 9 | 5.8% | -7.5% | +577.4% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 2 | 5.2% | -18.7% | +595.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jun 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -12.5% | +559.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 29.6% | +19.3% | +653.4% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 5 | 5.8% | +32.7% | +548.1% |
| Feb 2016 | May 2016 | 16 | 7.5% | +3.3% | +241.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | +16.1% | +216.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | +12.8% | +210.5% |
| Sep 2016 | May 2017 | 32 | 14.8% | +12.7% | +209.3% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | +22.8% | +189.4% |
| Apr 2018 | Jul 2018 | 12 | 4.7% | +13.0% | +191.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 | 6.5% | +31.9% | +120.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 2.4% | +30.3% | +117.8% |
| Average | 11 | — | +9.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02