NVR
NVR Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
NVR Inc. (NVR) closed at $8009.84 as of 2026-02-02, trading 19.8% above its 200-week moving average of $6683.77. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 79, NVR is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2067 weeks of data, NVR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 52 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.6%.
With a market cap of $21.9 billion, NVR is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 33.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVR would have grown to $1067979, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 32.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming NVR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: NVR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying NVR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.9% after 12 months (median +40.0%), compared to +15.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.6% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NVR has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +28.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1987 | Sep 1993 | 327 | 96.5% | -23.9% | +103900.2% |
| Jun 2006 | Nov 2006 | 25 | 25.0% | +29.6% | +1339.3% |
| Jul 2007 | Apr 2008 | 38 | 33.2% | -6.0% | +1285.4% |
| Apr 2008 | Jul 2009 | 64 | 48.3% | -23.9% | +1157.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 3.2% | +38.0% | +1230.9% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 3 | 1.2% | +41.3% | +1215.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 14.8% | +90.6% | +244.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 5.2% | +61.9% | +116.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 2.7% | +49.6% | +100.9% |
| Average | 52 | — | +28.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02