NVR
NVR Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
NVR Inc. (NVR) closed at $6369.38 as of 2026-03-20, trading 5.9% below its 200-week moving average of $6765.94. This places NVR in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 30, NVR is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2073 weeks of data, NVR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 47 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.6%.
With a market cap of $18.1 billion, NVR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 33.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.0% over the past three years. NVR passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVR would have grown to $849251, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 31.3% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming NVR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NVR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying NVR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.9% after 12 months (median +40.0%), compared to +15.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.6% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NVR has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +28.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1987 | Sep 1993 | 327 | 96.5% | -23.9% | +82600.4% |
| Jun 2006 | Nov 2006 | 25 | 25.0% | +29.6% | +1044.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Apr 2008 | 38 | 33.2% | -6.0% | +1001.6% |
| Apr 2008 | Jul 2009 | 64 | 48.3% | -23.9% | +899.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 3.2% | +38.0% | +958.4% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 3 | 1.2% | +41.3% | +945.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 14.8% | +90.6% | +173.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 5.2% | +61.9% | +72.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 2.7% | +49.6% | +59.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 5.9% | Ongoing | -1.5% |
| Average | 47 | — | +28.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, NVR Inc. (NVR) is trading 5.9% below its 200-week moving average of $6765.94. The current price is $6369.38.
What is NVR's 200-week moving average price?
NVR Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $6765.94 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NVR drops below its 200-week moving average?
NVR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +28.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 47 weeks on average.
Is NVR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NVR as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 30 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 6.4%. Return on equity is 33.2%. Price-to-book is 4.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NVR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in NVR would have grown to $849251, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 31.3% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. NVR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20