NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) closed at $47.08 as of 2026-07-31, trading 39.0% below its 200-week moving average of $77.11. This places NVO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -36.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2313 weeks of data, NVO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.4%.
With a market cap of $208.2 billion, NVO is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 71.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.7x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVO would have grown to $17256, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NVO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -23.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NVO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying NVO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.3% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +89.0% vs +25.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NVO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NVO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $27.59 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $31.91 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $37.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $46.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $60.17 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NVO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NVO has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +14.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 1 | 2.9% | -39.0% | +38943.4% |
| May 1984 | Aug 1984 | 11 | 14.1% | -30.0% | +41175.4% |
| Aug 1984 | Mar 1987 | 132 | 53.2% | -35.3% | +44529.1% |
| Apr 1987 | Apr 1987 | 3 | 0.7% | -23.8% | +46569.0% |
| May 1987 | Jun 1987 | 3 | 2.1% | -19.2% | +48309.5% |
| Aug 1987 | Jun 1988 | 43 | 33.2% | +13.4% | +52343.6% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 0.7% | +37.6% | +7648.8% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 1.0% | +68.7% | +7581.4% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 3 | 5.8% | +14.9% | +4784.8% |
| May 2002 | Jun 2002 | 5 | 3.5% | +25.0% | +4691.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Mar 2003 | 36 | 28.1% | +18.9% | +4944.4% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 2.1% | +57.4% | +4365.2% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 0.8% | +70.8% | +1448.1% |
| Apr 2009 | Apr 2009 | 2 | 0.9% | +83.0% | +1429.9% |
| Sep 2016 | Aug 2017 | 45 | 27.1% | +19.3% | +182.4% |
| Jun 2018 | Jun 2018 | 2 | 2.4% | +12.6% | +150.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 13 | 7.9% | +19.6% | +153.2% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | -34.6% | -35.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Ongoing | 73+ | 55.2% | Ongoing | -35.0% |
| Average | 20 | — | +14.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is trading 39.0% below its 200-week moving average of $77.11. The current price is $47.08.
What is NVO's 200-week moving average price?
Novo Nordisk A/S's 200-week moving average is $77.11 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NVO drops below its 200-week moving average?
NVO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is NVO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NVO as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 62. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 71.4%. Price-to-book is 6.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NVO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in NVO would have grown to $17256, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 16.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NVO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NVO pay a dividend?
Yes. Novo Nordisk A/S currently pays a dividend yield of 349.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31