NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) closed at $47.64 as of 2026-02-02, trading 41.0% below its 200-week moving average of $80.76. This places NVO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -26.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2288 weeks of data, NVO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $244.5 billion, NVO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.1%. Return on equity stands at 60.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.9x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVO would have grown to $16843, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.7% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming NVO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -23.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: NVO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying NVO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.8% after 12 months (median +38.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +89.0% vs +25.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NVO has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 1 | 2.9% | -39.0% | +38010.1% |
| May 1984 | Aug 1984 | 11 | 14.1% | -30.0% | +40188.8% |
| Aug 1984 | Mar 1987 | 132 | 53.2% | -35.3% | +43462.3% |
| Apr 1987 | Apr 1987 | 3 | 1.6% | -23.8% | +45453.5% |
| May 1987 | Jun 1987 | 3 | 2.1% | -19.2% | +47152.3% |
| Aug 1987 | Jun 1988 | 43 | 33.2% | +13.4% | +51090.0% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 0.7% | +37.6% | +7463.6% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 1.0% | +68.7% | +7397.8% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 3 | 5.8% | +14.9% | +4668.0% |
| May 2002 | Jun 2002 | 5 | 3.4% | +25.0% | +4576.5% |
| Jul 2002 | Mar 2003 | 36 | 28.1% | +18.9% | +4823.9% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 2.0% | +57.4% | +4258.5% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 0.8% | +70.8% | +1411.1% |
| Apr 2009 | Apr 2009 | 2 | 0.9% | +83.0% | +1393.3% |
| Sep 2016 | Aug 2017 | 45 | 27.1% | +19.3% | +175.6% |
| Jun 2018 | Jun 2018 | 2 | 2.4% | +12.6% | +144.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 13 | 7.9% | +19.6% | +147.2% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | N/A | -37.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Ongoing | 48+ | 43.2% | Ongoing | -36.5% |
| Average | 18 | — | +17.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02