NVGS
Navigator Holdings Ltd. Energy - Oil & Gas Midstream Investor Relations →
Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) closed at $25.00 as of 2026-09-18, trading 60.1% above its 200-week moving average of $15.61. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 48.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 979 weeks of data, NVGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 57 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVGS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.9%.
With a market cap of $1537 million, NVGS is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.9%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 11.7%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.0% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 18.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVGS would have grown to $69, compared to $733 for the S&P 500. NVGS has returned -2.0% annualized vs 11.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NVGS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVGS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying NVGS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.0% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +12.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.8% vs +21.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVGS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NVGS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NVGS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.59 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $19.80 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $21.19 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $22.78 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $24.63 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $0.53 | $0.85 | +58.9% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.30 | $0.50 | +65.5% |
| 2026-03-11 | $0.40 | $0.32 | -20.5% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.37 | $0.36 | -2.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NVGS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NVGS has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +14.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 4 | 0.6% | -44.6% | -27.7% |
| Mar 2009 | Apr 2011 | 111 | 67.2% | +22.9% | +117.6% |
| Nov 2013 | Oct 2019 | 307 | 73.9% | +17.1% | +30.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 42 | 60.4% | +8.8% | +183.5% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 2 | 6.0% | -9.9% | +172.3% |
| Feb 2021 | Apr 2021 | 9 | 10.6% | +2.5% | +160.6% |
| May 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 1.0% | +41.7% | +157.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Feb 2022 | 31 | 20.3% | +10.7% | +176.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 15.6% | +85.1% | +133.7% |
| Average | 57 | — | +14.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVGS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) is currently 60.1% above its 200-week moving average of $15.61. It would need to fall to $15.61 to cross below the line.
What is NVGS's 200-week moving average price?
Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $15.61 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NVGS drops below its 200-week moving average?
NVGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 57 weeks on average.
Is NVGS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NVGS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 6.9%. Return on equity is 11.7%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NVGS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.8 years, $100 invested in NVGS would have grown to $69, compared to $733 for the S&P 500. That's -2.0% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. NVGS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NVGS pay a dividend?
Yes. Navigator Holdings Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 112.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18