NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed at $185.41 as of 2026-02-02, trading 115.4% above its 200-week moving average of $86.09. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 124.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1363 weeks of data, NVDA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVDA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +54.1%.
With a market cap of $4.5 trillion, NVDA is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 107.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 37.9x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.3% reduction over three years. NVDA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 26.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVDA would have grown to $206807, compared to $748 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 33.8% vs 8.0% for the index — confirming NVDA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 95.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: NVDA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVDA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying NVDA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +66.9% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +9.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +103.2% vs +28.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVDA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NVDA has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +54.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 1 | 0.1% | +313.3% | +148027.8% |
| Jun 2002 | Feb 2005 | 139 | 69.0% | +4.5% | +106993.8% |
| Mar 2005 | May 2005 | 9 | 16.0% | +88.4% | +96352.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Jan 2011 | 131 | 65.0% | -12.7% | +64664.9% |
| Jun 2011 | Oct 2011 | 19 | 24.7% | -22.3% | +51064.7% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 3.3% | -18.3% | +57969.9% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 5 | 4.9% | -6.2% | +59775.2% |
| Apr 2012 | Jul 2012 | 15 | 12.1% | -4.9% | +60311.8% |
| Sep 2012 | May 2013 | 35 | 19.3% | +13.6% | +60266.7% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 1.4% | +33.5% | +56509.0% |
| Jul 2013 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 0.1% | +27.8% | +55871.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 12.5% | +232.7% | +1383.2% |
| Average | 30 | — | +54.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02