NVAX
Novavax Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Novavax Inc. (NVAX) closed at $9.13 as of 2026-06-19, trading 3.5% below its 200-week moving average of $9.46. This places NVAX in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -7.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.28 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1545 weeks of data, NVAX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 62 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -10.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1501 million, NVAX is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.9%. The stock trades at -10.4x book value.
Share count has increased 89.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 29.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVAX would have grown to $13, compared to $1638 for the S&P 500. NVAX has returned -6.6% annualized vs 9.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NVAX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVAX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying NVAX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -20.2% after 12 months (median -40.0%), compared to +10.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 24% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.6% vs +22.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVAX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. NVAX currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NVAX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NVAX has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +-10.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1996 | Jul 1997 | 34 | 35.6% | +28.6% | -87.0% |
| Jul 1997 | Jul 1997 | 1 | 2.0% | -23.6% | -89.9% |
| Nov 1997 | Dec 1997 | 4 | 7.5% | -33.3% | -89.9% |
| Feb 1998 | Sep 1999 | 81 | 67.9% | -42.3% | -89.7% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 5.7% | +110.3% | -88.2% |
| Apr 2002 | Sep 2003 | 75 | 71.0% | -31.4% | -92.3% |
| Oct 2003 | Jan 2006 | 117 | 82.4% | -47.8% | -93.8% |
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 13 | 24.2% | -23.6% | -88.6% |
| Dec 2006 | Oct 2007 | 41 | 37.4% | -10.8% | -88.5% |
| Nov 2007 | Jul 2009 | 89 | 82.5% | -37.2% | -87.3% |
| Nov 2009 | Oct 2012 | 150 | 50.6% | -29.6% | -86.1% |
| Oct 2012 | Mar 2013 | 22 | 26.4% | +36.5% | -78.4% |
| Apr 2013 | Jul 2013 | 9 | 14.5% | +98.6% | -79.1% |
| Feb 2016 | Mar 2016 | 6 | 4.5% | -72.3% | -90.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 13.0% | -83.9% | -90.1% |
| Sep 2016 | May 2020 | 191 | 92.0% | -11.6% | -64.6% |
| Feb 2022 | Ongoing | 225+ | 95.3% | Ongoing | -87.3% |
| Average | 62 | — | +-10.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVAX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Novavax Inc. (NVAX) is trading 3.5% below its 200-week moving average of $9.46. The current price is $9.13.
What is NVAX's 200-week moving average price?
Novavax Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $9.46 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NVAX drops below its 200-week moving average?
NVAX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -10.8%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 62 weeks on average.
Is NVAX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NVAX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 3.9%. Price-to-book is -10.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NVAX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.7 years, $100 invested in NVAX would have grown to $13, compared to $1638 for the S&P 500. That's -6.6% annualized vs 9.9% for the index. NVAX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19