NVAX
Novavax Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Novavax Inc. (NVAX) closed at $8.25 as of 2026-02-02, trading 38.9% below its 200-week moving average of $13.50. This places NVAX in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -35.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1526 weeks of data, NVAX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 61 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -10.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1341 million, NVAX is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. The stock trades at -8.6x book value.
Share count has increased 111.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 29.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVAX would have grown to $12, compared to $1507 for the S&P 500. NVAX has returned -7.0% annualized vs 9.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: NVAX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVAX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying NVAX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -20.2% after 12 months (median -40.0%), compared to +10.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 24% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.6% vs +22.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVAX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NVAX has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +-10.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1996 | Jul 1997 | 34 | 35.6% | +28.6% | -88.2% |
| Jul 1997 | Jul 1997 | 1 | 2.0% | -23.6% | -90.8% |
| Nov 1997 | Dec 1997 | 4 | 7.5% | -33.3% | -90.8% |
| Feb 1998 | Sep 1999 | 81 | 67.9% | -42.3% | -90.7% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 5.7% | +110.3% | -89.4% |
| Apr 2002 | Sep 2003 | 75 | 71.0% | -31.4% | -93.0% |
| Oct 2003 | Jan 2006 | 117 | 82.4% | -47.8% | -94.4% |
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 13 | 24.2% | -23.6% | -89.7% |
| Dec 2006 | Oct 2007 | 41 | 37.4% | -10.8% | -89.6% |
| Nov 2007 | Jul 2009 | 89 | 82.5% | -37.2% | -88.5% |
| Nov 2009 | Oct 2012 | 150 | 50.6% | -29.6% | -87.4% |
| Oct 2012 | Mar 2013 | 22 | 26.4% | +36.5% | -80.5% |
| Apr 2013 | Jul 2013 | 9 | 14.5% | +98.6% | -81.1% |
| Feb 2016 | Mar 2016 | 6 | 4.5% | -72.3% | -91.4% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 13.0% | -83.9% | -91.1% |
| Sep 2016 | May 2020 | 191 | 92.0% | -11.6% | -68.0% |
| Feb 2022 | Ongoing | 206+ | 95.3% | Ongoing | -88.5% |
| Average | 61 | — | +-10.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02