NUE
Nucor Corporation Materials - Steel Investor Relations →
Nucor Corporation (NUE) closed at $243.83 as of 2026-06-19, trading 61.2% above its 200-week moving average of $151.29. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 76.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, NUE is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, NUE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NUE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.9%.
With a market cap of $55.5 billion, NUE is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 12.3%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
NUE is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 86.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NUE would have grown to $5084, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NUE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NUE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NUE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 30 historical episodes, buying NUE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.2% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +14.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.3% vs +34.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NUE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NUE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NUE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $147.57 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $165.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $188.17 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $218.19 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $259.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NUE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NUE has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +10.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Nov 1982 | 60 | 39.2% | -29.1% | +43754.3% |
| Nov 1982 | Dec 1982 | 4 | 2.8% | +38.1% | +46483.0% |
| Apr 1984 | Aug 1984 | 16 | 14.1% | +25.1% | +44781.9% |
| Oct 1984 | Dec 1984 | 12 | 9.3% | +45.7% | +41811.9% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 2.3% | +47.2% | +27859.3% |
| Sep 1995 | Oct 1995 | 4 | 6.9% | +11.4% | +4306.8% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 3 | 3.3% | +3.9% | +4240.2% |
| Jun 1996 | Jun 1996 | 1 | 0.7% | +16.1% | +3843.1% |
| Jun 1996 | Nov 1996 | 22 | 11.6% | +14.5% | +3833.3% |
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 4 | 5.3% | -8.0% | +3763.7% |
| Jan 1997 | May 1997 | 14 | 14.7% | -7.7% | +3711.1% |
| Sep 1997 | Mar 1998 | 24 | 17.7% | -25.8% | +3626.9% |
| May 1998 | Apr 1999 | 45 | 27.8% | -1.9% | +3709.9% |
| May 1999 | Aug 1999 | 10 | 9.0% | -12.8% | +4077.7% |
| Aug 1999 | Oct 1999 | 9 | 13.7% | -23.4% | +3904.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 6 | 4.2% | -9.8% | +3847.8% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2001 | 53 | 36.2% | -12.3% | +3998.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 8 | 20.3% | +23.0% | +4274.7% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 7 | 14.4% | +16.8% | +4560.5% |
| Dec 2002 | May 2003 | 25 | 15.3% | +15.4% | +3969.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2011 | 123 | 39.5% | +9.4% | +792.0% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 1.0% | +1.2% | +701.0% |
| May 2011 | Jan 2012 | 36 | 28.3% | -11.1% | +715.5% |
| Apr 2012 | Jul 2012 | 14 | 12.4% | +12.8% | +782.8% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 2 | 2.8% | +23.9% | +788.2% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 3 | 1.7% | +32.0% | +798.5% |
| Jul 2015 | Jul 2015 | 2 | 1.6% | +37.5% | +633.3% |
| Aug 2015 | Mar 2016 | 29 | 18.6% | +19.6% | +622.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 9.1% | -20.1% | +449.4% |
| Jul 2019 | Oct 2019 | 12 | 12.0% | -17.2% | +430.8% |
| Dec 2019 | Nov 2020 | 46 | 43.7% | +1.6% | +409.1% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 5.5% | +108.4% | +442.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Jul 2025 | 30 | 25.4% | +34.2% | +99.5% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 0.6% | N/A | +77.8% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 6 | 6.5% | N/A | +84.9% |
| Average | 18 | — | +10.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NUE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Nucor Corporation (NUE) is currently 61.2% above its 200-week moving average of $151.29. It would need to fall to $151.29 to cross below the line.
What is NUE's 200-week moving average price?
Nucor Corporation's 200-week moving average is $151.29 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NUE drops below its 200-week moving average?
NUE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is NUE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NUE as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 12.3%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NUE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NUE would have grown to $5084, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NUE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NUE pay a dividend?
Yes. Nucor Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 86.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19