NTRS
Northern Trust Corporation Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) closed at $182.19 as of 2026-07-31, trading 82.1% above its 200-week moving average of $100.06. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 81.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, NTRS is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, NTRS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NTRS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.5%.
With a market cap of $33.3 billion, NTRS is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.1%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NTRS would have grown to $3331, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NTRS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 6 open-market purchases totaling $790,362.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 41.8% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NTRS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NTRS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying NTRS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.8% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.3% vs +42.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NTRS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NTRS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NTRS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $135.69 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $146.97 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $160.28 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $176.26 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $195.77 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NTRS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NTRS has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +23.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1981 | 9 | 7.3% | +5.8% | +44106.3% |
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 8 | 7.6% | +73.3% | +44761.2% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 0.1% | +101.1% | +9677.5% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 11.1% | +134.3% | +10815.7% |
| Nov 1994 | Jan 1995 | 8 | 8.6% | +45.6% | +4033.1% |
| Jan 1995 | Apr 1995 | 11 | 8.9% | +57.0% | +4156.4% |
| Apr 1995 | May 1995 | 1 | 0.6% | +55.4% | +3712.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 7 | 13.6% | -14.8% | +604.7% |
| Feb 2002 | Mar 2002 | 2 | 4.4% | -37.5% | +508.1% |
| Apr 2002 | Nov 2004 | 136 | 45.5% | -36.1% | +489.8% |
| Jan 2005 | Apr 2005 | 13 | 5.8% | +13.6% | +582.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2009 | 24 | 34.9% | +9.1% | +402.6% |
| Apr 2009 | Jul 2009 | 14 | 12.2% | +3.5% | +405.9% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2012 | 158 | 36.9% | -17.9% | +377.8% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 3 | 1.5% | +20.7% | +456.6% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 2 | 0.8% | +28.1% | +454.0% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 3.3% | +53.3% | +324.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 2.7% | +38.0% | +187.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 26.5% | +12.2% | +152.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.3% | -15.7% | +125.1% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 18 | 15.0% | -14.3% | +121.0% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 0.3% | -9.8% | +117.5% |
| Feb 2023 | Sep 2024 | 82 | 29.2% | -9.5% | +117.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 3.3% | +69.6% | +118.2% |
| Average | 23 | — | +23.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTRS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is currently 82.1% above its 200-week moving average of $100.06. It would need to fall to $100.06 to cross below the line.
What is NTRS's 200-week moving average price?
Northern Trust Corporation's 200-week moving average is $100.06 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NTRS drops below its 200-week moving average?
NTRS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is NTRS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NTRS as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 71 (overbought). Return on equity is 17.1%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NTRS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in NTRS would have grown to $3331, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NTRS has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NTRS pay a dividend?
Yes. Northern Trust Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 180.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31