NTRS
Northern Trust Corporation Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) closed at $177.89 as of 2026-09-18, trading 72.0% above its 200-week moving average of $103.40. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 83.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.68 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, NTRS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NTRS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.5%.
With a market cap of $32.5 billion, NTRS is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.1%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NTRS would have grown to $3268, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NTRS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 6 open-market purchases totaling $803,809.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 41.8% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NTRS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NTRS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying NTRS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.8% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.3% vs +42.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NTRS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. NTRS currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $4.62 | $4.23 | -8.3% |
| 2026-04-21 | $2.33 | $2.71 | +16.1% |
| 2026-01-22 | $2.37 | $2.42 | +2.0% |
| 2025-10-22 | $2.24 | $2.29 | +2.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NTRS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NTRS has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +23.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1981 | 9 | 7.3% | +5.8% | +43266.5% |
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 8 | 7.6% | +73.3% | +43909.0% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 0.1% | +101.1% | +9491.8% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 11.1% | +134.3% | +10608.3% |
| Nov 1994 | Jan 1995 | 8 | 8.6% | +45.6% | +3954.6% |
| Jan 1995 | Apr 1995 | 11 | 8.9% | +57.0% | +4075.5% |
| Apr 1995 | May 1995 | 1 | 0.6% | +55.4% | +3640.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 7 | 13.6% | -14.8% | +591.3% |
| Feb 2002 | Mar 2002 | 2 | 4.4% | -37.5% | +496.5% |
| Apr 2002 | Nov 2004 | 136 | 45.5% | -36.1% | +478.6% |
| Jan 2005 | Apr 2005 | 13 | 5.8% | +13.6% | +569.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2009 | 24 | 34.9% | +9.1% | +393.0% |
| Apr 2009 | Jul 2009 | 14 | 12.2% | +3.5% | +396.3% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2012 | 158 | 36.9% | -17.9% | +368.7% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 3 | 1.5% | +20.7% | +446.0% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 2 | 0.8% | +28.1% | +443.4% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 3.3% | +53.3% | +316.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 2.7% | +38.0% | +181.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 26.5% | +12.2% | +147.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.3% | -15.7% | +120.8% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 18 | 15.0% | -14.3% | +116.8% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 0.3% | -9.8% | +113.3% |
| Feb 2023 | Sep 2024 | 82 | 29.2% | -9.5% | +113.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 3.3% | +69.6% | +114.0% |
| Average | 23 | — | +23.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTRS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is currently 72.0% above its 200-week moving average of $103.40. It would need to fall to $103.40 to cross below the line.
What is NTRS's 200-week moving average price?
Northern Trust Corporation's 200-week moving average is $103.40 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NTRS drops below its 200-week moving average?
NTRS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is NTRS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NTRS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Return on equity is 17.1%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NTRS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in NTRS would have grown to $3268, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NTRS has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NTRS pay a dividend?
Yes. Northern Trust Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 184.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18