NTR
Nutrien Basic Materials Investor Relations →
Nutrien (NTR) closed at $78.45 as of 2026-09-11, trading 37.3% above its 200-week moving average of $57.13. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 39.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 405 weeks of data, NTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -15.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $37.4 billion, NTR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 9.4%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 7.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NTR would have grown to $214, compared to $342 for the S&P 500. NTR has returned 10.2% annualized vs 17.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -29.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NTR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NTR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying NTR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -13.7% after 12 months (median -16.0%), compared to +19.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.9% vs +54.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NTR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NTR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NTR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $52.99 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $57.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $63.87 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $71.19 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $80.39 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.72 | $2.61 | -3.9% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.55 | $0.51 | -7.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.91 | $0.83 | -8.6% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.96 | $0.97 | +0.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NTR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NTR has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +-15.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 12.9% | +4.9% | +116.6% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -43.1% | +99.8% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 5.2% | -33.1% | +102.4% |
| Jul 2019 | Jul 2019 | 1 | 1.2% | -33.3% | +98.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 3 | 5.1% | -19.1% | +99.3% |
| Sep 2019 | Nov 2020 | 60 | 42.9% | -16.6% | +98.8% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 5 | 7.2% | +9.3% | +56.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Jun 2025 | 88 | 28.6% | -11.6% | +46.2% |
| Jun 2025 | Dec 2025 | 23 | 9.4% | +6.7% | +38.5% |
| Average | 21 | — | +-15.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Nutrien (NTR) is currently 37.3% above its 200-week moving average of $57.13. It would need to fall to $57.13 to cross below the line.
What is NTR's 200-week moving average price?
Nutrien's 200-week moving average is $57.13 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NTR drops below its 200-week moving average?
NTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -15.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is NTR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NTR as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 9.4%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NTR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.8 years, $100 invested in NTR would have grown to $214, compared to $342 for the S&P 500. That's 10.2% annualized vs 17.0% for the index. NTR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NTR pay a dividend?
Yes. Nutrien currently pays a dividend yield of 280.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11