NTES
NetEase Inc. Communication Services - Gaming Investor Relations →
NetEase Inc. (NTES) closed at $121.33 as of 2026-06-19, trading 23.1% above its 200-week moving average of $98.52. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1307 weeks of data, NTES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 7 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NTES at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +208.4%.
With a market cap of $77.7 billion, NTES is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 43.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 22.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 16.0x book value.
NTES passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 25.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NTES would have grown to $231225, compared to $959 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 36.2% vs 9.4% for the index — confirming NTES as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NTES vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NTES Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying NTES when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +206.8% after 12 months (median +52.0%), compared to +15.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 94% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +372.1% vs +36.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NTES crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NTES would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NTES's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-13.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $86.50 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $94.31 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $103.68 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $115.11 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $129.38 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NTES's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NTES has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +208.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2001 | Aug 2002 | 62 | 81.6% | -47.6% | +139662.5% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 6.8% | +2661.6% | +140286.5% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 4.0% | +48.4% | +5144.6% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 2 | 13.6% | +140.6% | +4844.4% |
| Jan 2009 | Jan 2009 | 3 | 6.5% | +114.3% | +4133.5% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 4 | 9.6% | +85.5% | +1915.8% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 5 | 6.9% | +26.3% | +244.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 2 | 5.0% | +37.6% | +237.7% |
| Feb 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 2.6% | +51.5% | +225.9% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 6.9% | +115.9% | +220.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 15 | 30.7% | +33.9% | +71.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Feb 2023 | 1 | 4.2% | +40.7% | +68.0% |
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2023 | 1 | 2.8% | +7.8% | +48.1% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 2 | 3.8% | +36.1% | +42.0% |
| Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | 14 | 15.9% | +47.4% | +42.4% |
| Oct 2024 | Dec 2024 | 8 | 16.1% | +70.8% | +43.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 2.2% | +71.6% | +43.3% |
| Average | 7 | — | +208.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTES below its 200-week moving average?
No. NetEase Inc. (NTES) is currently 23.1% above its 200-week moving average of $98.52. It would need to fall to $98.52 to cross below the line.
What is NTES's 200-week moving average price?
NetEase Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $98.52 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NTES drops below its 200-week moving average?
NTES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +208.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 7 weeks on average.
Is NTES a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NTES as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 43.9%. Return on equity is 22.1%. Price-to-book is 16.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NTES compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.1 years, $100 invested in NTES would have grown to $231225, compared to $959 for the S&P 500. That's 36.2% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. NTES has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NTES pay a dividend?
Yes. NetEase Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 248.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19