NTCT
NetScout Systems, Inc. Technology - Software - Infrastructure Investor Relations →
NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) closed at $39.67 as of 2026-06-19, trading 52.3% above its 200-week moving average of $26.05. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 59.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, NTCT is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1353 weeks of data, NTCT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NTCT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.9%.
With a market cap of $2.8 billion, NTCT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 6.0%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Over the past 26 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NTCT would have grown to $294, compared to $829 for the S&P 500. NTCT has returned 4.2% annualized vs 8.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NTCT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NTCT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying NTCT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.8% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +14.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.0% vs +25.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NTCT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NTCT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NTCT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $30.89 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $35.96 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $39.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $43.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NTCT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NTCT has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +13.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2000 | Sep 2000 | 9 | 34.9% | -61.5% | +155.9% |
| Oct 2000 | Jan 2004 | 169 | 78.7% | -71.2% | +100.9% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 6 | 12.3% | -24.0% | +451.0% |
| Apr 2004 | Oct 2004 | 26 | 27.7% | -46.5% | +474.9% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 3 | 8.5% | +0.5% | +555.7% |
| Feb 2005 | May 2005 | 13 | 37.4% | +20.3% | +625.2% |
| Aug 2005 | Jan 2006 | 23 | 12.3% | +18.1% | +620.0% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 1.5% | +51.5% | +577.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 4.4% | +64.2% | +398.4% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 2 | 19.5% | +85.9% | +488.6% |
| Mar 2009 | Apr 2009 | 7 | 24.2% | +125.9% | +478.3% |
| May 2009 | Jul 2009 | 8 | 4.6% | +61.3% | +362.4% |
| Jul 2009 | Jul 2009 | 1 | 1.2% | +75.7% | +338.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 20.9% | +73.0% | +192.3% |
| Dec 2015 | Nov 2016 | 49 | 37.8% | +6.7% | +27.7% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 5.1% | +1.5% | +29.0% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 6 | 5.4% | -1.1% | +24.4% |
| Jul 2017 | Feb 2020 | 134 | 30.2% | -8.6% | +17.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 42 | 26.6% | +9.8% | +54.4% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 1 | 1.9% | +17.6% | +51.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 2.5% | -21.0% | +44.1% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 2 | 4.0% | -31.3% | +40.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Oct 2025 | 117 | 37.4% | -27.6% | +43.4% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 0.9% | N/A | +52.8% |
| Average | 26 | — | +13.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTCT below its 200-week moving average?
No. NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) is currently 52.3% above its 200-week moving average of $26.05. It would need to fall to $26.05 to cross below the line.
What is NTCT's 200-week moving average price?
NetScout Systems, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $26.05 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NTCT drops below its 200-week moving average?
NTCT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is NTCT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NTCT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 9.2%. Return on equity is 6.0%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NTCT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26 years, $100 invested in NTCT would have grown to $294, compared to $829 for the S&P 500. That's 4.2% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. NTCT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19