NSSC
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) closed at $37.39 as of 2026-06-19, trading 8.2% above its 200-week moving average of $34.56. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 7.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2272 weeks of data, NSSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NSSC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $1336 million, NSSC is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 21.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.5x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.9% reduction over three years. NSSC passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NSSC would have grown to $13762, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NSSC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 95.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NSSC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NSSC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying NSSC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.3% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.3% vs +38.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NSSC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NSSC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NSSC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.36 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $36.99 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $40.05 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $43.66 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $47.99 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NSSC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NSSC has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1982 | May 1983 | 22 | 49.2% | +125.0% | +31509.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | 17.5% | +57.6% | +5008.6% |
| Nov 1987 | Feb 1988 | 13 | 17.8% | +70.2% | +5815.2% |
| Apr 1989 | Feb 1993 | 200 | 76.1% | -55.8% | +3820.5% |
| May 1994 | May 1994 | 2 | 0.9% | -25.0% | +11941.7% |
| Jun 1994 | Aug 1994 | 9 | 12.1% | -34.6% | +12867.9% |
| Sep 1994 | Nov 1995 | 63 | 39.9% | -25.0% | +11941.7% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 1.2% | +7.1% | +11941.7% |
| Feb 1996 | Apr 1996 | 5 | 12.9% | +46.4% | +11941.7% |
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 2.8% | +42.9% | +11941.7% |
| Jun 1996 | Jun 1996 | 1 | 0.7% | +41.4% | +11526.4% |
| Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 1.2% | +31.0% | +11526.4% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 6 | 5.1% | +10.7% | +11941.7% |
| Oct 1996 | Jan 1997 | 11 | 7.5% | +58.6% | +11526.4% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 2.1% | -10.9% | +10436.5% |
| Nov 1998 | Jan 1999 | 8 | 4.1% | -9.4% | +10436.5% |
| Jan 1999 | Jan 2001 | 105 | 38.1% | -15.6% | +10436.5% |
| Mar 2007 | Mar 2007 | 1 | 0.5% | +3.1% | +1492.8% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 3 | 2.2% | -37.0% | +1342.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Dec 2007 | 7 | 13.1% | -62.4% | +1340.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 8.6% | -76.9% | +1364.3% |
| Feb 2008 | Jun 2011 | 175 | 85.9% | -77.3% | +1326.8% |
| Jul 2011 | Aug 2011 | 3 | 1.1% | +13.7% | +2878.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 1.3% | +25.0% | +2997.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Dec 2011 | 14 | 14.9% | +49.6% | +3323.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 10.3% | +163.5% | +470.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 4 | 9.4% | +95.4% | +90.6% |
| Feb 2025 | Aug 2025 | 28 | 32.2% | +72.5% | +48.9% |
| Average | 25 | — | +17.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NSSC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) is currently 8.2% above its 200-week moving average of $34.56. It would need to fall to $34.56 to cross below the line.
What is NSSC's 200-week moving average price?
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $34.56 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NSSC drops below its 200-week moving average?
NSSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is NSSC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NSSC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 21.7%. Price-to-book is 7.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NSSC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NSSC would have grown to $13762, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 15.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NSSC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19