NSSC
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) closed at $37.08 as of 2026-07-31, trading 6.4% above its 200-week moving average of $34.84. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 2.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2278 weeks of data, NSSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NSSC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $1325 million, NSSC is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 21.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.5x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.9% reduction over three years. NSSC passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NSSC would have grown to $13648, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NSSC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 95.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NSSC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NSSC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying NSSC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.3% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +15.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.3% vs +37.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NSSC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NSSC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NSSC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.10 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $36.60 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $39.49 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $42.88 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $46.90 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NSSC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NSSC has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1982 | May 1983 | 22 | 49.2% | +125.0% | +31247.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | 17.5% | +57.6% | +4966.2% |
| Nov 1987 | Feb 1988 | 13 | 17.8% | +70.2% | +5766.2% |
| Apr 1989 | Feb 1993 | 200 | 76.1% | -55.8% | +3788.0% |
| May 1994 | May 1994 | 2 | 0.9% | -25.0% | +11841.8% |
| Jun 1994 | Aug 1994 | 9 | 12.1% | -34.6% | +12760.4% |
| Sep 1994 | Nov 1995 | 63 | 39.9% | -25.0% | +11841.8% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 1.2% | +7.1% | +11841.8% |
| Feb 1996 | Apr 1996 | 5 | 12.9% | +46.4% | +11841.8% |
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 2.8% | +42.9% | +11841.8% |
| Jun 1996 | Jun 1996 | 1 | 0.7% | +41.4% | +11430.1% |
| Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 1.2% | +31.0% | +11430.1% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 6 | 5.1% | +10.7% | +11841.8% |
| Oct 1996 | Jan 1997 | 11 | 7.5% | +58.6% | +11430.1% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 2.1% | -10.9% | +10349.1% |
| Nov 1998 | Jan 1999 | 8 | 4.1% | -9.4% | +10349.1% |
| Jan 1999 | Jan 2001 | 105 | 38.1% | -15.6% | +10349.1% |
| Mar 2007 | Mar 2007 | 1 | 0.5% | +3.1% | +1479.6% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 3 | 2.2% | -37.0% | +1330.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Dec 2007 | 7 | 13.1% | -62.4% | +1328.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 8.6% | -76.9% | +1352.2% |
| Feb 2008 | Jun 2011 | 175 | 85.9% | -77.3% | +1315.0% |
| Jul 2011 | Aug 2011 | 3 | 1.1% | +13.7% | +2854.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 1.3% | +25.0% | +2971.5% |
| Sep 2011 | Dec 2011 | 14 | 14.9% | +49.6% | +3294.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 10.3% | +163.5% | +465.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 4 | 9.4% | +95.4% | +89.0% |
| Feb 2025 | Aug 2025 | 28 | 32.2% | +72.5% | +47.6% |
| Average | 25 | — | +17.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NSSC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) is currently 6.4% above its 200-week moving average of $34.84. It would need to fall to $34.84 to cross below the line.
What is NSSC's 200-week moving average price?
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $34.84 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NSSC drops below its 200-week moving average?
NSSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is NSSC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NSSC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 21.7%. Price-to-book is 7.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NSSC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in NSSC would have grown to $13648, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 15.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NSSC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NSSC pay a dividend?
Yes. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 165.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31