NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation Industrials - Railroads Investor Relations →
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) closed at $335.48 as of 2026-07-31, trading 38.3% above its 200-week moving average of $242.64. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 44.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2256 weeks of data, NSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NSC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.6%.
With a market cap of $75.4 billion, NSC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 17.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.6x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NSC would have grown to $3455, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NSC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,259,860.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NSC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NSC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying NSC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.3% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +17.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +44.1% vs +31.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NSC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NSC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NSC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $277.93 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $290.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $304.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $320.00 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $337.00 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NSC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NSC has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +19.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1984 | Jul 1984 | 10 | 7.7% | +36.1% | +17434.5% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 5.7% | +41.7% | +11768.8% |
| Jan 1999 | Mar 1999 | 5 | 2.2% | -35.6% | +2134.3% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 3 | 8.8% | -46.5% | +2122.7% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2002 | 129 | 52.8% | -29.4% | +2013.4% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 2 | 0.7% | -8.5% | +2544.3% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 1.5% | +5.2% | +2611.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 7.8% | -0.2% | +2721.7% |
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 6 | 2.4% | +7.4% | +2695.7% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 12 | 7.6% | +20.4% | +2778.2% |
| Aug 2003 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 0.6% | +52.7% | +2901.2% |
| Nov 2008 | Aug 2009 | 41 | 42.7% | +16.4% | +1006.6% |
| Sep 2009 | Nov 2009 | 7 | 9.7% | +29.4% | +962.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 2.2% | +31.5% | +938.8% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 0.4% | +58.9% | +704.2% |
| Aug 2015 | Nov 2015 | 12 | 6.4% | +21.0% | +440.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 10 | 16.2% | +47.7% | +437.4% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 2 | 0.6% | +45.8% | +408.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 13.4% | +114.5% | +208.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 4.1% | -3.8% | +73.9% |
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | 16 | 9.8% | +26.5% | +71.3% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 18 | 18.0% | +13.7% | +64.9% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 11 | 7.6% | -0.8% | +51.7% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 9 | 9.0% | +27.1% | +48.0% |
| Average | 13 | — | +19.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NSC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is currently 38.3% above its 200-week moving average of $242.64. It would need to fall to $242.64 to cross below the line.
What is NSC's 200-week moving average price?
Norfolk Southern Corporation's 200-week moving average is $242.64 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NSC drops below its 200-week moving average?
NSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is NSC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NSC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 1.8%. Return on equity is 17.0%. Price-to-book is 4.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NSC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in NSC would have grown to $3455, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NSC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NSC pay a dividend?
Yes. Norfolk Southern Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 162.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31