NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation Industrials - Railroads Investor Relations →
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) closed at $306.48 as of 2026-02-02, trading 31.9% above its 200-week moving average of $232.31. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 25.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, NSC is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2231 weeks of data, NSC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NSC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $75.0 billion, NSC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.9%. Return on equity stands at 19.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NSC would have grown to $3142, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming NSC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,259,860.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: NSC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NSC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying NSC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.5% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +17.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.8% vs +28.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NSC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NSC has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1984 | Jul 1984 | 10 | 7.6% | +36.1% | +15849.7% |
| Nov 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 1.0% | +37.2% | +10250.2% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 1 | 5.6% | +41.7% | +10696.1% |
| Jan 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 2.2% | -35.6% | +1932.4% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 2 | 1.8% | -45.5% | +1881.3% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 3 | 8.7% | -46.5% | +1921.8% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2002 | 129 | 52.8% | -29.7% | +1835.5% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 2 | 0.7% | -8.8% | +2305.3% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 1.4% | +5.2% | +2366.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 8.1% | -0.2% | +2466.7% |
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 6 | 2.3% | +7.4% | +2443.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 12 | 7.5% | +20.4% | +2518.1% |
| Aug 2003 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 0.6% | +52.7% | +2629.9% |
| Nov 2008 | Aug 2009 | 41 | 42.6% | +16.4% | +906.6% |
| Sep 2009 | Nov 2009 | 7 | 9.7% | +29.4% | +866.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 2.2% | +31.5% | +844.9% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 0.4% | +58.9% | +631.5% |
| Aug 2015 | Nov 2015 | 12 | 6.4% | +21.0% | +391.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 10 | 16.1% | +47.7% | +388.8% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 2 | 0.6% | +45.8% | +362.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 13.4% | +114.5% | +180.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 4.0% | -3.8% | +58.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | 16 | 9.8% | +26.5% | +55.8% |
| Jul 2023 | Dec 2023 | 19 | 17.9% | +11.1% | +45.0% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 11 | 7.6% | -0.8% | +38.0% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 8 | 9.0% | N/A | +34.9% |
| Average | 12 | — | +17.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02