NSA
National Storage Affiliates Trust Real Estate - REIT - Industrial Investor Relations →
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) closed at $45.43 as of 2026-06-26, trading 37.8% above its 200-week moving average of $32.97. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 33.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, NSA is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 535 weeks of data, NSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NSA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.6%.
With a market cap of $6.7 billion, NSA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 7.9%. The stock trades at 6.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 10.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NSA would have grown to $353, compared to $421 for the S&P 500. NSA has returned 13.0% annualized vs 14.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NSA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NSA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying NSA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.4% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +26.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.7% vs +51.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NSA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NSA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NSA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $37.78 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $42.42 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $48.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $56.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $67.18 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NSA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NSA has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +15.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.5% | +69.4% | +161.6% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +84.5% | +156.2% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 1 | 2.4% | -14.1% | +50.7% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 9 | 7.0% | -10.2% | +46.6% |
| Apr 2023 | Dec 2023 | 35 | 27.6% | +0.5% | +41.6% |
| Jan 2024 | Jun 2024 | 22 | 11.5% | +0.8% | +38.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2026 | 61 | 22.5% | -22.0% | +32.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 8.8% | N/A | +51.5% |
| Average | 16 | — | +15.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NSA below its 200-week moving average?
No. National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) is currently 37.8% above its 200-week moving average of $32.97. It would need to fall to $32.97 to cross below the line.
What is NSA's 200-week moving average price?
National Storage Affiliates Trust's 200-week moving average is $32.97 as of 2026-06-26. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NSA drops below its 200-week moving average?
NSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is NSA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NSA as of 2026-06-26: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 7.9%. Price-to-book is 6.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NSA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.3 years, $100 invested in NSA would have grown to $353, compared to $421 for the S&P 500. That's 13.0% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. NSA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NSA pay a dividend?
Yes. National Storage Affiliates Trust currently pays a dividend yield of 502.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-26