NRG
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NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) closed at $103.66 as of 2026-09-18, trading 12.7% above its 200-week moving average of $91.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 23.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1141 weeks of data, NRG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NRG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.2%.
With a market cap of $21.8 billion, NRG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.5%. Return on equity stands at 23.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 17.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 21.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NRG would have grown to $885, compared to $964 for the S&P 500. NRG has returned 10.5% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NRG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NRG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying NRG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.7% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.4% vs +27.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NRG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NRG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NRG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $104.82 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $117.70 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $134.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $156.04 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $186.39 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $1.74 | $1.49 | -14.4% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.73 | $1.49 | -14.0% |
| 2026-02-24 | $0.89 | $1.04 | +16.4% |
| 2025-11-06 | $2.13 | $2.78 | +30.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NRG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NRG has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +14.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2012 | 205 | 48.7% | +1.8% | +429.2% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 5 | 6.6% | +36.1% | +553.3% |
| Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | 3 | 2.9% | -52.0% | +454.9% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 1 | 0.8% | -44.7% | +454.6% |
| Jun 2015 | Jul 2017 | 109 | 61.9% | -36.2% | +447.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 16.8% | +64.6% | +434.2% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 2 | 2.4% | +45.5% | +308.8% |
| Nov 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +22.8% | +296.8% |
| May 2021 | May 2021 | 1 | 2.4% | +49.5% | +270.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Jun 2023 | 29 | 12.7% | +54.4% | +250.6% |
| Average | 36 | — | +14.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NRG below its 200-week moving average?
No. NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is currently 12.7% above its 200-week moving average of $91.99. It would need to fall to $91.99 to cross below the line.
What is NRG's 200-week moving average price?
NRG Energy, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $91.99 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NRG drops below its 200-week moving average?
NRG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 36 weeks on average.
Is NRG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NRG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 3.5%. Return on equity is 23.8%. Price-to-book is 5.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NRG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.9 years, $100 invested in NRG would have grown to $885, compared to $964 for the S&P 500. That's 10.5% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. NRG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NRG pay a dividend?
Yes. NRG Energy, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 183.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18