NREF
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF) closed at $16.96 as of 2026-07-31, trading 43.2% above its 200-week moving average of $11.85. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 42.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, NREF is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.70 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 290 weeks of data, NREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 5 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NREF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.6%.
With a market cap of $391 million, NREF is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Share count has increased 8.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 5.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NREF would have grown to $208, compared to $217 for the S&P 500. NREF has returned 14.0% annualized vs 14.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -29.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NREF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NREF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying NREF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.2% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +23.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.6% vs +47.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NREF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NREF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NREF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $12.11 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $12.96 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $13.95 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $15.10 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $16.46 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NREF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NREF has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +21.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 9.5% | +27.2% | +91.4% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 1.8% | +17.4% | +75.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | 14 | 16.6% | +7.8% | +79.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.2% | +14.7% | +72.8% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 1 | 3.4% | +29.0% | +71.6% |
| Mar 2024 | May 2024 | 11 | 6.0% | +31.2% | +66.4% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 4 | 2.9% | +22.5% | +64.6% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.7% | +23.2% | +56.5% |
| Average | 5 | — | +21.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NREF below its 200-week moving average?
No. NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF) is currently 43.2% above its 200-week moving average of $11.85. It would need to fall to $11.85 to cross below the line.
What is NREF's 200-week moving average price?
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $11.85 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NREF drops below its 200-week moving average?
NREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 5 weeks on average.
Is NREF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NREF as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 75 (overbought). Return on equity is 16.3%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NREF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 5.6 years, $100 invested in NREF would have grown to $208, compared to $217 for the S&P 500. That's 14.0% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. NREF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NREF pay a dividend?
Yes. NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1184.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31