NREF
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF) closed at $14.85 as of 2026-02-02, trading 20.2% above its 200-week moving average of $12.35. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 19.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, NREF is in overbought territory.
Over the past 265 weeks of data, NREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 5 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NREF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.6%.
With a market cap of $338 million, NREF is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Share count has increased 90.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 5.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NREF would have grown to $170, compared to $200 for the S&P 500. NREF has returned 10.8% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: NREF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NREF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying NREF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.1% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +22.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.8% vs +54.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NREF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NREF has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +21.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 9.3% | +27.2% | +56.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 1.6% | +17.4% | +43.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | 14 | 16.5% | +8.6% | +53.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.0% | +14.7% | +41.3% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 1 | 3.2% | +29.0% | +40.4% |
| Mar 2024 | May 2024 | 11 | 5.8% | +31.6% | +41.0% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 4 | 5.0% | +22.9% | +39.6% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.5% | N/A | +28.0% |
| Average | 5 | — | +21.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02