NREF
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF) closed at $12.97 as of 2026-03-20, trading 8.8% above its 200-week moving average of $11.92. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 6.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 271 weeks of data, NREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 5 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NREF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.6%.
With a market cap of $306 million, NREF is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
Share count has increased 90.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 5.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NREF would have grown to $154, compared to $188 for the S&P 500. NREF has returned 8.6% annualized vs 12.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NREF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NREF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying NREF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.1% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +22.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +24.7% vs +49.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NREF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NREF has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +21.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 9.3% | +27.2% | +41.7% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 1.6% | +17.4% | +30.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | 14 | 16.5% | +8.6% | +38.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.0% | +14.7% | +28.0% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 1 | 3.2% | +29.0% | +27.1% |
| Mar 2024 | May 2024 | 11 | 5.8% | +31.6% | +27.6% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 4 | 5.0% | +22.9% | +26.4% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.5% | N/A | +15.9% |
| Average | 5 | — | +21.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NREF below its 200-week moving average?
No. NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF) is currently 8.8% above its 200-week moving average of $11.92. It would need to fall to $11.92 to cross below the line.
What is NREF's 200-week moving average price?
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $11.92 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NREF drops below its 200-week moving average?
NREF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 5 weeks on average.
Is NREF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NREF as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Return on equity is 17.5%. Price-to-book is 0.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NREF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 5.2 years, $100 invested in NREF would have grown to $154, compared to $188 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 12.8% for the index. NREF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NREF pay a dividend?
Yes. NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1542.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20