NRC
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National Research Corporation (NRC) closed at $20.56 as of 2026-09-18, trading 18.9% below its 200-week moving average of $25.34. This places NRC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -16.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 647 weeks of data, NRC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NRC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.5%.
With a market cap of $455 million, NRC is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 42.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 69.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 12.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NRC would have grown to $172, compared to $498 for the S&P 500. NRC has returned 4.5% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NRC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NRC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying NRC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.5% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +11.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +42.4% vs +24.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NRC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NRC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NRC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-26.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $19.13 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $20.83 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $22.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $25.36 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $28.46 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.14 | $0.31 | +121.4% |
| 2019-08-06 | $0.26 | $0.29 | +11.5% |
| 2019-05-07 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +3.2% |
| 2019-02-12 | $1.05 | $0.30 | -71.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NRC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NRC has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +12.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2014 | Nov 2014 | 27 | 20.2% | -6.1% | +72.5% |
| Nov 2014 | Oct 2015 | 49 | 20.2% | +11.4% | +90.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 6.8% | +45.7% | +88.6% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 4.2% | +32.3% | +83.5% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 1 | 1.4% | +35.9% | +78.3% |
| Apr 2016 | Jul 2016 | 12 | 9.6% | +46.0% | +77.0% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 1 | 0.3% | -1.8% | -44.9% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 2 | 4.9% | -16.3% | -47.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Nov 2021 | 6 | 9.0% | -11.6% | -48.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Sep 2023 | 95 | 31.6% | -10.9% | -45.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Ongoing | 154+ | 69.1% | Ongoing | -47.4% |
| Average | 32 | — | +12.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NRC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, National Research Corporation (NRC) is trading 18.9% below its 200-week moving average of $25.34. The current price is $20.56.
What is NRC's 200-week moving average price?
National Research Corporation's 200-week moving average is $25.34 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NRC drops below its 200-week moving average?
NRC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is NRC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NRC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 42.0%. Price-to-book is 69.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NRC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.5 years, $100 invested in NRC would have grown to $172, compared to $498 for the S&P 500. That's 4.5% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. NRC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NRC pay a dividend?
Yes. National Research Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 310.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18