NPK
National Presto Industries, Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) closed at $121.42 as of 2026-07-31, trading 39.4% above its 200-week moving average of $87.08. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, NPK is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, NPK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NPK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.0%.
With a market cap of $870 million, NPK is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.4%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NPK would have grown to $1281, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. NPK has returned 7.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NPK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NPK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying NPK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.1% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +16.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.8% vs +25.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NPK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NPK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NPK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $32.05 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $43.32 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $66.82 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $146.01 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NPK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NPK has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +14.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 16 | 7.9% | +11.5% | +3069.3% |
| Apr 1988 | Apr 1988 | 1 | 0.8% | +41.0% | +2921.2% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 2 | 2.4% | +44.2% | +2882.0% |
| Jun 1988 | Jun 1988 | 2 | 1.9% | +45.6% | +2921.2% |
| Jul 1988 | Aug 1988 | 6 | 3.1% | +46.5% | +2947.9% |
| Dec 1993 | Jun 1997 | 184 | 22.1% | -12.8% | +1345.7% |
| Jul 1997 | Jul 1997 | 2 | 2.0% | +6.6% | +1461.1% |
| Aug 1998 | Aug 1998 | 1 | 1.1% | +12.8% | +1459.8% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.9% | +8.8% | +1454.5% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 2.3% | -0.5% | +1435.5% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 1.0% | +5.4% | +1438.2% |
| Nov 1999 | Apr 2000 | 22 | 6.8% | -11.1% | +1413.9% |
| May 2000 | Apr 2002 | 98 | 15.3% | -3.0% | +1582.4% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 1 | 0.8% | +11.3% | +1466.8% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 4.8% | +20.3% | +1522.3% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 10 | 7.1% | +27.9% | +1458.8% |
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 15 | 7.1% | +26.0% | +1477.6% |
| Mar 2012 | Mar 2013 | 54 | 18.7% | +5.3% | +221.8% |
| Apr 2013 | Dec 2013 | 37 | 15.2% | +4.1% | +203.4% |
| Dec 2013 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 6.2% | -22.1% | +195.6% |
| Apr 2014 | May 2015 | 54 | 21.8% | -6.6% | +198.4% |
| Jul 2019 | May 2020 | 45 | 24.8% | +3.1% | +82.9% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 9 | 7.8% | +23.7% | +77.9% |
| Aug 2020 | Jan 2021 | 19 | 12.2% | +1.4% | +74.7% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 2.3% | -2.8% | +73.0% |
| Aug 2021 | Mar 2023 | 81 | 24.7% | -6.6% | +70.2% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 8 | 7.2% | +19.0% | +85.0% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 2 | 1.0% | +7.1% | +80.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Oct 2023 | 10 | 2.8% | +8.2% | +79.8% |
| Jul 2024 | Jul 2024 | 1 | 1.6% | +55.4% | +75.5% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 2 | 1.2% | +65.1% | +71.8% |
| Average | 22 | — | +14.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NPK below its 200-week moving average?
No. National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) is currently 39.4% above its 200-week moving average of $87.08. It would need to fall to $87.08 to cross below the line.
What is NPK's 200-week moving average price?
National Presto Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $87.08 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NPK drops below its 200-week moving average?
NPK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is NPK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NPK as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 28 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 8.4%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NPK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in NPK would have grown to $1281, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 7.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NPK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NPK pay a dividend?
Yes. National Presto Industries, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 82.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31