NOV
NOV Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Investor Relations →
NOV Inc. (NOV) closed at $18.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 12.7% above its 200-week moving average of $16.56. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 27.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1498 weeks of data, NOV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 50 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -8.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $6.7 billion, NOV is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 1.5%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NOV would have grown to $141, compared to $1331 for the S&P 500. NOV has returned 1.2% annualized vs 9.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NOV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NOV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying NOV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -7.1% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +6.0% vs +26.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NOV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NOV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NOV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.38 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $19.80 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $21.47 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $23.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $25.79 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NOV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NOV has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +-8.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1998 | Jan 1998 | 1 | 2.6% | -51.6% | +125.4% |
| Jun 1998 | Feb 2000 | 86 | 66.5% | -51.3% | +107.5% |
| Jul 2001 | Mar 2002 | 34 | 41.1% | -9.2% | +159.9% |
| Jun 2002 | Jan 2004 | 82 | 28.6% | +4.6% | +155.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 53 | 52.0% | -0.9% | -34.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Jan 2010 | 10 | 9.2% | +35.6% | -34.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Oct 2010 | 37 | 26.7% | +60.2% | -38.3% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 6.7% | -43.6% | -63.7% |
| Dec 2014 | May 2018 | 176 | 52.6% | -46.6% | -65.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2022 | 180 | 70.1% | -41.4% | -42.0% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 5 | 10.3% | -2.9% | +7.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 8 | 23.0% | -4.6% | +23.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 12.7% | +21.9% | +16.0% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 9 | 9.9% | +20.5% | +29.6% |
| Sep 2024 | Jan 2026 | 70 | 30.6% | -14.9% | +22.0% |
| Average | 50 | — | +-8.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOV below its 200-week moving average?
No. NOV Inc. (NOV) is currently 12.7% above its 200-week moving average of $16.56. It would need to fall to $16.56 to cross below the line.
What is NOV's 200-week moving average price?
NOV Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $16.56 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NOV drops below its 200-week moving average?
NOV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -8.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 50 weeks on average.
Is NOV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NOV as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 11.6%. Return on equity is 1.5%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NOV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in NOV would have grown to $141, compared to $1331 for the S&P 500. That's 1.2% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. NOV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NOV pay a dividend?
Yes. NOV Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 173.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19