NOG
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) closed at $25.64 as of 2026-02-02, trading 12.9% below its 200-week moving average of $29.43. This places NOG in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -15.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 934 weeks of data, NOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 48 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NOG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.8%.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, NOG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 8.0%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 28.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 18 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NOG would have grown to $43, compared to $731 for the S&P 500. NOG has returned -4.5% annualized vs 11.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $2,344,894. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while NOG is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: NOG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NOG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying NOG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +10.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +75.6% vs +27.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NOG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NOG has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +16.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2008 | 2 | 9.7% | +2.2% | -51.1% |
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 34 | 64.5% | +25.3% | -51.4% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 2 | 15.8% | +102.1% | -49.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 0.3% | -14.4% | -79.6% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 10 | 11.2% | +14.3% | -79.6% |
| Jan 2013 | Sep 2018 | 294 | 89.9% | -11.0% | -81.0% |
| Oct 2018 | May 2021 | 135 | 82.3% | -33.9% | +3.4% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 10 | 19.3% | +50.1% | +96.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 2 | 7.5% | N/A | -0.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 24.0% | N/A | +15.5% |
| Jun 2025 | Ongoing | 33+ | 28.8% | Ongoing | -6.7% |
| Average | 48 | — | +16.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02