NODK
NI Holdings, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK) closed at $15.91 as of 2026-06-19, trading 15.0% above its 200-week moving average of $13.84. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 12.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, NODK is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 435 weeks of data, NODK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -0.7%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $326 million, NODK is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -1.7%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.5% reduction over three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 8.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NODK would have grown to $97, compared to $313 for the S&P 500. NODK has returned -0.4% annualized vs 14.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NODK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NODK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying NODK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.2% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 42% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.8% vs +29.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NODK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. NODK currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NODK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NODK has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +-0.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 | 2.7% | -6.6% | -3.5% |
| Mar 2018 | Jun 2018 | 14 | 3.7% | -4.6% | -3.7% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 6 | 2.1% | +5.3% | -3.4% |
| Sep 2018 | Sep 2018 | 1 | 0.4% | +0.6% | -5.0% |
| Oct 2018 | May 2019 | 29 | 10.7% | +7.7% | -2.9% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 2.2% | +4.2% | -2.0% |
| Nov 2019 | Dec 2019 | 3 | 2.2% | +6.4% | -2.3% |
| Dec 2019 | Jul 2020 | 30 | 37.5% | -1.0% | -4.0% |
| Aug 2020 | Sep 2020 | 5 | 2.7% | +23.1% | +0.1% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2022 | 10 | 8.1% | -16.3% | -0.6% |
| Jul 2022 | Nov 2024 | 121 | 23.8% | -17.7% | -5.5% |
| Dec 2024 | May 2026 | 74 | 18.6% | -9.1% | +3.9% |
| Average | 25 | — | +-0.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NODK below its 200-week moving average?
No. NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK) is currently 15.0% above its 200-week moving average of $13.84. It would need to fall to $13.84 to cross below the line.
What is NODK's 200-week moving average price?
NI Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $13.84 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NODK drops below its 200-week moving average?
NODK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -0.7%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is NODK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NODK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 8.6%. Return on equity is -1.7%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NODK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.4 years, $100 invested in NODK would have grown to $97, compared to $313 for the S&P 500. That's -0.4% annualized vs 14.5% for the index. NODK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19