NNN
NNN REIT, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Retail Investor Relations →
NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) closed at $45.00 as of 2026-06-19, trading 17.4% above its 200-week moving average of $38.32. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 21.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2127 weeks of data, NNN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NNN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.4%.
With a market cap of $8.6 billion, NNN is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.8%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Share count has increased 4.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NNN would have grown to $3499, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NNN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NNN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NNN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying NNN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.6% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +16.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.2% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NNN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NNN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NNN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $41.98 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $43.83 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $45.85 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $48.07 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $50.51 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NNN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NNN has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +14.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1985 | Oct 1985 | 1 | 0.2% | -2.2% | +4726.1% |
| Oct 1985 | Oct 1985 | 1 | 0.3% | -6.5% | +4726.1% |
| Nov 1985 | Dec 1985 | 3 | 2.6% | +4.3% | +4726.1% |
| Dec 1985 | Jan 1986 | 1 | 0.5% | +1.1% | +4726.1% |
| Mar 1986 | Nov 1986 | 33 | 13.6% | -11.1% | +4833.4% |
| Jan 1987 | Dec 1990 | 205 | 26.7% | -28.3% | +4726.1% |
| Dec 1990 | Feb 1991 | 5 | 3.6% | +30.9% | +6602.9% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 9 | 10.0% | -5.3% | +1951.0% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 0.5% | -2.4% | +1859.2% |
| Jul 1999 | Jan 2001 | 77 | 18.5% | -2.7% | +1853.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 39.6% | +20.5% | +501.0% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.3% | +49.0% | +83.1% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.6% | +43.6% | +81.1% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 2.0% | +51.7% | +83.0% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 1.9% | +46.6% | +78.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Dec 2020 | 40 | 39.1% | +50.5% | +110.1% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 4 | 4.4% | +25.3% | +49.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 1.7% | +8.9% | +36.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 7.7% | -8.6% | +33.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 11.7% | +23.3% | +35.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Feb 2025 | 5 | 4.4% | +14.4% | +29.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +14.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NNN below its 200-week moving average?
No. NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) is currently 17.4% above its 200-week moving average of $38.32. It would need to fall to $38.32 to cross below the line.
What is NNN's 200-week moving average price?
NNN REIT, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $38.32 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NNN drops below its 200-week moving average?
NNN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is NNN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NNN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 8.8%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NNN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NNN would have grown to $3499, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NNN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19