NNN
NNN REIT, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Retail Investor Relations →
NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) closed at $41.55 as of 2026-09-18, trading 7.6% above its 200-week moving average of $38.63. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2140 weeks of data, NNN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NNN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.3%.
With a market cap of $7.9 billion, NNN is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.7%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 4.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NNN would have grown to $3200, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NNN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NNN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NNN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying NNN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.3% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.1% vs +26.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NNN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NNN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NNN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $42.97 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $45.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $48.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $51.23 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $54.74 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.51 | $0.51 | +0.1% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.51 | $0.49 | -4.1% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.50 | $0.51 | +1.2% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.48 | $0.49 | +2.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NNN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NNN has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +15.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1985 | Oct 1985 | 1 | 0.2% | -2.2% | +4414.3% |
| Oct 1985 | Oct 1985 | 1 | 0.3% | -6.5% | +4414.3% |
| Nov 1985 | Dec 1985 | 3 | 2.6% | +4.3% | +4414.3% |
| Dec 1985 | Jan 1986 | 1 | 0.5% | +1.1% | +4414.3% |
| Mar 1986 | Nov 1986 | 33 | 13.6% | -11.1% | +4514.6% |
| Jan 1987 | Dec 1990 | 205 | 26.7% | -28.3% | +4414.3% |
| Dec 1990 | Feb 1991 | 5 | 3.6% | +30.9% | +6169.8% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 9 | 10.1% | -5.3% | +1818.5% |
| Jul 1999 | Jan 2001 | 77 | 18.6% | -2.7% | +1726.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 39.7% | +20.5% | +462.1% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.4% | +49.0% | +71.3% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.7% | +43.6% | +69.4% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 2.0% | +51.7% | +71.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 1.9% | +46.6% | +67.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Dec 2020 | 40 | 39.1% | +50.5% | +96.5% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 4 | 3.7% | +25.3% | +40.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.9% | +27.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 7.8% | -8.6% | +24.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 14 | 11.8% | +23.2% | +24.0% |
| Jan 2025 | Feb 2025 | 5 | 4.5% | +14.4% | +20.8% |
| Average | 22 | — | +15.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NNN below its 200-week moving average?
No. NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) is currently 7.6% above its 200-week moving average of $38.63. It would need to fall to $38.63 to cross below the line.
What is NNN's 200-week moving average price?
NNN REIT, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $38.63 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NNN drops below its 200-week moving average?
NNN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is NNN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NNN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 8.7%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NNN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in NNN would have grown to $3200, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NNN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NNN pay a dividend?
Yes. NNN REIT, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 597.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18