NNI
Nelnet, Inc. Financial Services - Credit Services Investor Relations →
Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) closed at $135.87 as of 2026-07-31, trading 28.0% above its 200-week moving average of $106.17. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 26.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1133 weeks of data, NNI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NNI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.9%.
With a market cap of $4.9 billion, NNI is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.7%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Over the past 21.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NNI would have grown to $716, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. NNI has returned 9.5% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -14% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NNI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NNI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying NNI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.5% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +19.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +41.0% vs +29.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NNI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NNI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NNI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $123.28 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $127.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $131.82 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $136.55 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $141.63 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NNI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NNI has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +15.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2006 | Sep 2006 | 4 | 7.5% | -33.6% | +497.3% |
| Sep 2006 | Mar 2010 | 180 | 80.5% | -40.3% | +491.8% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 3 | 5.5% | +22.4% | +361.5% |
| Nov 2015 | Feb 2016 | 16 | 18.9% | +13.9% | +348.3% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 9 | 13.1% | +13.7% | +322.1% |
| Aug 2016 | Sep 2016 | 7 | 10.0% | +39.0% | +332.4% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 2 | 1.9% | +57.4% | +278.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 17 | 24.5% | +54.9% | +191.6% |
| Average | 30 | — | +15.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NNI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) is currently 28.0% above its 200-week moving average of $106.17. It would need to fall to $106.17 to cross below the line.
What is NNI's 200-week moving average price?
Nelnet, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $106.17 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NNI drops below its 200-week moving average?
NNI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is NNI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NNI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Return on equity is 10.7%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NNI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.8 years, $100 invested in NNI would have grown to $716, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. NNI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NNI pay a dividend?
Yes. Nelnet, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 95.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31