NMIH
NMI Holdings, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance - Specialty Investor Relations →
NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) closed at $41.05 as of 2026-02-02, trading 34.5% above its 200-week moving average of $30.51. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 27.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 591 weeks of data, NMIH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NMIH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.2%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, NMIH is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 16.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.4% over the past three years. NMIH passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 11.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NMIH would have grown to $459, compared to $415 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 13.3% for the index — confirming NMIH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: NMIH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NMIH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying NMIH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +7.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.0% vs +23.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NMIH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NMIH has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +17.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2016 | 108 | 49.4% | -10.4% | +362.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Sep 2020 | 28 | 46.4% | +113.9% | +263.6% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 3 | 3.3% | -20.9% | +91.0% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 3 | 1.4% | -6.6% | +88.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Jan 2022 | 8 | 10.7% | +1.8% | +91.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Jan 2023 | 47 | 28.9% | +10.9% | +87.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | 5 | 7.0% | +32.0% | +85.1% |
| Average | 29 | — | +17.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02