NLY
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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) closed at $22.72 as of 2026-07-31, trading 42.8% above its 200-week moving average of $15.91. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 41.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.38 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1455 weeks of data, NLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NLY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.3%.
With a market cap of $17.1 billion, NLY is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 19.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 51.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NLY would have grown to $1950, compared to $1188 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.2% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming NLY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying NLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.3% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +49.8% vs +23.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. NLY currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NLY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +18.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1998 | Jan 1999 | 18 | 25.6% | +52.4% | +2125.1% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 1.7% | +16.9% | +1538.9% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 3 | 5.9% | +54.8% | +1523.9% |
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 1 | 0.6% | +57.5% | +1511.3% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 1 | 0.6% | -12.6% | +354.5% |
| Sep 2005 | Mar 2007 | 79 | 26.4% | +2.7% | +417.9% |
| Jun 2007 | Jun 2007 | 1 | 0.4% | +24.6% | +346.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 7.8% | +58.3% | +328.3% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 5.6% | +72.1% | +342.8% |
| Jun 2013 | Aug 2014 | 62 | 23.3% | +3.5% | +126.3% |
| Sep 2014 | Nov 2014 | 10 | 6.0% | -0.7% | +118.1% |
| Dec 2014 | Oct 2015 | 44 | 10.8% | -6.9% | +110.9% |
| Oct 2015 | Feb 2016 | 14 | 8.5% | +15.4% | +116.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 2 | 3.7% | +2.4% | +70.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 50.7% | +44.6% | +94.1% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 3 | 1.2% | -13.5% | +50.9% |
| Apr 2022 | Aug 2022 | 18 | 17.1% | -16.8% | +52.3% |
| Aug 2022 | May 2024 | 89 | 35.6% | -12.4% | +51.2% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 3 | 1.8% | +10.4% | +58.0% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 2 | 1.2% | +12.7% | +56.1% |
| Average | 20 | — | +18.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NLY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is currently 42.8% above its 200-week moving average of $15.91. It would need to fall to $15.91 to cross below the line.
What is NLY's 200-week moving average price?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.91 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NLY drops below its 200-week moving average?
NLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is NLY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NLY as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Return on equity is 19.6%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NLY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.9 years, $100 invested in NLY would have grown to $1950, compared to $1188 for the S&P 500. That's 11.2% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. NLY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NLY pay a dividend?
Yes. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1300.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31