NLY
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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) closed at $22.85 as of 2026-02-02, trading 42.8% above its 200-week moving average of $16.01. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 44.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1430 weeks of data, NLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NLY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.2%.
With a market cap of $16.2 billion, NLY is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.2%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 58.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NLY would have grown to $1898, compared to $1096 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 9.1% for the index — confirming NLY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: NLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying NLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.4% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +9.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.0% vs +21.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +18.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1998 | Jan 1999 | 18 | 25.4% | +52.4% | +1994.1% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 3 | 1.5% | +16.4% | +1422.7% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 3 | 5.7% | +54.8% | +1428.3% |
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 1 | 0.3% | +57.5% | +1416.4% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 1 | 0.4% | -12.6% | +327.8% |
| Sep 2005 | Mar 2007 | 79 | 26.9% | +2.7% | +387.4% |
| Jun 2007 | Jun 2007 | 1 | 0.3% | +24.6% | +319.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 7.7% | +58.3% | +303.1% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 5.4% | +72.1% | +316.7% |
| Jun 2013 | Aug 2014 | 60 | 23.1% | +3.5% | +112.9% |
| Sep 2014 | Nov 2014 | 10 | 8.3% | -0.7% | +105.2% |
| Dec 2014 | Oct 2015 | 44 | 13.4% | -6.9% | +98.5% |
| Oct 2015 | Feb 2016 | 14 | 8.3% | +15.4% | +103.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 2 | 3.4% | +2.4% | +60.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 52.6% | +44.6% | +82.7% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 3 | 1.0% | -13.5% | +42.0% |
| Mar 2022 | Aug 2022 | 19 | 17.0% | -21.1% | +41.2% |
| Aug 2022 | May 2024 | 89 | 35.5% | -12.4% | +42.3% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 3 | 1.6% | +10.4% | +48.7% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 2 | 3.9% | +16.6% | +51.9% |
| Average | 20 | — | +18.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02