NL

NL Industries, Inc. Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →

NO
8.3% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 9.1% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $5.54
14-Week RSI 53
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.8x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.66 — Sellers winning

NL Industries, Inc. (NL) closed at $6.00 as of 2026-06-19, trading 8.3% above its 200-week moving average of $5.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 9.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.66 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.

Over the past 2365 weeks of data, NL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.2%.

With a market cap of $293 million, NL is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -8.0%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.

This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.

Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NL would have grown to $932, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. NL has returned 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: NL vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After NL Crosses Below the Line?

Across 38 historical episodes, buying NL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.9% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.4% vs +26.9% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NL would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.04σ
Current FCF Yield 1.43%
Baseline Yield 1.52%
Historical σ 0.93pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where NL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$2.02Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$2.59Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$3.59Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$5.86Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$15.93Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from NL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation +0.89σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.03σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +0.38σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -0.0pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +0.3pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (-2.6pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

NL has crossed below its 200-week MA 42 times with an average 1-year return of +29.2% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
May 1981Jan 198624467.4%-36.6%+188.8%
Feb 1986Mar 198646.8%+139.0%+645.9%
Apr 1986Jun 1986911.5%+189.5%+663.8%
Apr 1990Feb 199420069.0%-16.8%+172.9%
Feb 1994May 19941324.9%+46.9%+424.5%
Aug 1996Aug 199610.9%+34.4%+332.3%
Oct 1996Dec 1996617.9%+99.2%+399.4%
Mar 1997Apr 1997510.7%+68.3%+301.9%
Oct 1998Oct 199812.3%-26.7%+197.4%
Nov 1998Nov 19995134.2%-1.1%+196.1%
Mar 2000Apr 200013.5%+33.8%+208.3%
Apr 2001Apr 2001424.4%+11.7%+157.0%
Jun 2001Aug 2001710.4%+20.9%+169.0%
Sep 2001Dec 20011317.2%+3.9%+158.3%
Jan 2002Mar 2002810.0%+46.9%+155.4%
Jul 2002Jul 200210.5%+53.2%+153.4%
Sep 2002Sep 200210.8%+38.7%+152.9%
Dec 2003Dec 2003126.6%+314.9%+186.2%
Mar 2006Apr 2006517.5%-3.0%+23.8%
Jun 2006Oct 200812529.2%-0.1%+22.0%
Nov 2008Nov 200814.4%-33.0%+11.0%
Feb 2009Mar 2009627.7%-28.4%+10.7%
May 2009Aug 20106536.2%-25.2%+16.2%
Aug 2010Sep 201057.7%+75.5%+33.2%
Oct 2012Nov 201241.8%+14.9%-5.0%
Apr 2013Apr 201310.1%+1.3%-8.9%
Jul 2013Jul 201310.9%-4.1%-11.0%
Aug 2013Aug 201310.9%-15.1%-11.9%
Sep 2013Sep 201321.6%-17.5%-12.2%
Dec 2013Dec 201339.0%-18.5%-11.8%
Jan 2014Feb 201436.3%-34.4%-16.4%
Feb 2014Dec 201614677.3%-30.0%-17.8%
Jan 2017Apr 20171021.8%+101.6%+48.9%
Sep 2018Mar 202112862.6%-36.2%+42.0%
Aug 2023Dec 20231815.1%+40.4%+47.9%
Jan 2024Mar 202497.9%+64.9%+44.6%
Jul 2024Jul 202410.1%+27.0%+26.8%
Jul 2024Aug 202410.9%+8.4%+26.6%
Jul 2025Aug 202515.1%N/A+16.8%
Oct 2025Oct 202510.1%N/A+9.5%
Nov 2025Jan 202685.2%N/A+15.1%
Mar 2026Mar 202612.6%N/A+10.5%
Average27+29.2%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NL below its 200-week moving average?

No. NL Industries, Inc. (NL) is currently 8.3% above its 200-week moving average of $5.54. It would need to fall to $5.54 to cross below the line.

What is NL's 200-week moving average price?

NL Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $5.54 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when NL drops below its 200-week moving average?

NL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.

Is NL a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about NL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is -8.0%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does NL compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NL would have grown to $932, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NL has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19