NL
NL Industries, Inc. Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →
NL Industries, Inc. (NL) closed at $6.00 as of 2026-06-19, trading 8.3% above its 200-week moving average of $5.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 9.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.66 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, NL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.2%.
With a market cap of $293 million, NL is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -8.0%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NL would have grown to $932, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. NL has returned 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 38 historical episodes, buying NL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.9% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.4% vs +26.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $2.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $3.59 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $5.86 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $15.93 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NL has crossed below its 200-week MA 42 times with an average 1-year return of +29.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1981 | Jan 1986 | 244 | 67.4% | -36.6% | +188.8% |
| Feb 1986 | Mar 1986 | 4 | 6.8% | +139.0% | +645.9% |
| Apr 1986 | Jun 1986 | 9 | 11.5% | +189.5% | +663.8% |
| Apr 1990 | Feb 1994 | 200 | 69.0% | -16.8% | +172.9% |
| Feb 1994 | May 1994 | 13 | 24.9% | +46.9% | +424.5% |
| Aug 1996 | Aug 1996 | 1 | 0.9% | +34.4% | +332.3% |
| Oct 1996 | Dec 1996 | 6 | 17.9% | +99.2% | +399.4% |
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 5 | 10.7% | +68.3% | +301.9% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 2.3% | -26.7% | +197.4% |
| Nov 1998 | Nov 1999 | 51 | 34.2% | -1.1% | +196.1% |
| Mar 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 3.5% | +33.8% | +208.3% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 4 | 24.4% | +11.7% | +157.0% |
| Jun 2001 | Aug 2001 | 7 | 10.4% | +20.9% | +169.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 13 | 17.2% | +3.9% | +158.3% |
| Jan 2002 | Mar 2002 | 8 | 10.0% | +46.9% | +155.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 0.5% | +53.2% | +153.4% |
| Sep 2002 | Sep 2002 | 1 | 0.8% | +38.7% | +152.9% |
| Dec 2003 | Dec 2003 | 1 | 26.6% | +314.9% | +186.2% |
| Mar 2006 | Apr 2006 | 5 | 17.5% | -3.0% | +23.8% |
| Jun 2006 | Oct 2008 | 125 | 29.2% | -0.1% | +22.0% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 4.4% | -33.0% | +11.0% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 6 | 27.7% | -28.4% | +10.7% |
| May 2009 | Aug 2010 | 65 | 36.2% | -25.2% | +16.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 7.7% | +75.5% | +33.2% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 4 | 1.8% | +14.9% | -5.0% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 0.1% | +1.3% | -8.9% |
| Jul 2013 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 0.9% | -4.1% | -11.0% |
| Aug 2013 | Aug 2013 | 1 | 0.9% | -15.1% | -11.9% |
| Sep 2013 | Sep 2013 | 2 | 1.6% | -17.5% | -12.2% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 3 | 9.0% | -18.5% | -11.8% |
| Jan 2014 | Feb 2014 | 3 | 6.3% | -34.4% | -16.4% |
| Feb 2014 | Dec 2016 | 146 | 77.3% | -30.0% | -17.8% |
| Jan 2017 | Apr 2017 | 10 | 21.8% | +101.6% | +48.9% |
| Sep 2018 | Mar 2021 | 128 | 62.6% | -36.2% | +42.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 18 | 15.1% | +40.4% | +47.9% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 9 | 7.9% | +64.9% | +44.6% |
| Jul 2024 | Jul 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +27.0% | +26.8% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 0.9% | +8.4% | +26.6% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 5.1% | N/A | +16.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.1% | N/A | +9.5% |
| Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | 8 | 5.2% | N/A | +15.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 2.6% | N/A | +10.5% |
| Average | 27 | — | +29.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NL below its 200-week moving average?
No. NL Industries, Inc. (NL) is currently 8.3% above its 200-week moving average of $5.54. It would need to fall to $5.54 to cross below the line.
What is NL's 200-week moving average price?
NL Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $5.54 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NL drops below its 200-week moving average?
NL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is NL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is -8.0%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NL would have grown to $932, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 6.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19