NKE
NIKE Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Apparel Investor Relations → Deep dive → Deep dive →
NIKE Inc. (NKE) closed at $41.71 as of 2026-07-31, trading 48.1% below its 200-week moving average of $80.34. This places NKE in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -48.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2334 weeks of data, NKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NKE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.0%.
With a market cap of $61.9 billion, NKE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.0%. Return on equity stands at 22.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.2x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NKE would have grown to $2284, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. NKE has returned 9.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 9 open-market purchases totaling $9,186,871. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while NKE is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -23.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NKE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NKE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying NKE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.1% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +15.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.3% vs +32.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NKE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NKE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NKE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $38.77 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $44.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $51.01 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $60.57 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $74.54 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NKE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NKE has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +31.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1983 | Dec 1985 | 110 | 51.7% | -52.0% | +25541.7% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 2.5% | +36.0% | +27566.1% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 7 | 18.5% | +76.3% | +30226.2% |
| Nov 1986 | Nov 1986 | 1 | 4.0% | +25.2% | +30226.2% |
| Dec 1986 | Feb 1987 | 8 | 12.0% | +42.3% | +33099.2% |
| Aug 1993 | Aug 1993 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.7% | +3465.1% |
| Aug 1993 | May 1994 | 36 | 17.9% | +22.8% | +3472.0% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 1 | 0.1% | +87.9% | +3036.7% |
| Oct 1994 | Nov 1994 | 1 | 0.5% | +99.1% | +3017.0% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 11 | 18.8% | +29.5% | +1059.6% |
| Nov 1998 | Jan 1999 | 10 | 17.1% | +15.9% | +974.6% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 6 | 13.4% | -13.1% | +852.5% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 2000 | 50 | 47.8% | +13.3% | +819.9% |
| Feb 2001 | Jul 2001 | 20 | 22.3% | +57.4% | +1105.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 3.5% | +1.4% | +932.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Mar 2003 | 31 | 12.6% | +12.1% | +888.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2008 | 5 | 6.0% | +36.9% | +347.2% |
| Dec 2008 | Dec 2008 | 1 | 0.1% | +31.8% | +330.8% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 12 | 19.4% | +35.0% | +328.7% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +50.8% | +325.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.3% | +105.6% | -32.1% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.6% | +7.5% | -58.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 9.4% | +7.1% | -58.1% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 17 | 26.7% | -7.6% | -58.5% |
| May 2023 | Ongoing | 168+ | 50.2% | Ongoing | -61.2% |
| Average | 20 | — | +31.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NKE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, NIKE Inc. (NKE) is trading 48.1% below its 200-week moving average of $80.34. The current price is $41.71.
What is NKE's 200-week moving average price?
NIKE Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $80.34 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NKE drops below its 200-week moving average?
NKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is NKE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NKE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 3.0%. Return on equity is 22.1%. Price-to-book is 4.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NKE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in NKE would have grown to $2284, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 9.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NKE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NKE pay a dividend?
Yes. NIKE Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 388.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31