NKE
NIKE Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Apparel Investor Relations →
NIKE Inc. (NKE) closed at $63.92 as of 2026-02-02, trading 27.9% below its 200-week moving average of $88.67. This places NKE in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -30.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2309 weeks of data, NKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NKE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.2%.
With a market cap of $94.6 billion, NKE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 18.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 6.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NKE would have grown to $3446, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming NKE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $5,955,397. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while NKE is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: NKE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NKE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying NKE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.1% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +15.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.3% vs +32.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NKE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NKE has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +31.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1983 | Dec 1985 | 110 | 51.7% | -52.0% | +38590.3% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 2.5% | +36.0% | +41644.8% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 7 | 18.5% | +76.3% | +45658.7% |
| Nov 1986 | Nov 1986 | 1 | 4.0% | +25.2% | +45658.7% |
| Dec 1986 | Feb 1987 | 8 | 12.0% | +41.3% | +49993.6% |
| Aug 1993 | Aug 1993 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.7% | +5279.3% |
| Aug 1993 | May 1994 | 36 | 17.8% | +22.8% | +5292.2% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 1 | 0.1% | +87.9% | +4632.9% |
| Oct 1994 | Nov 1994 | 1 | 0.5% | +99.1% | +4603.2% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 11 | 18.8% | +29.5% | +1649.7% |
| Nov 1998 | Jan 1999 | 10 | 17.1% | +15.9% | +1521.5% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 6 | 13.4% | -13.1% | +1337.2% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 2000 | 50 | 47.8% | +13.3% | +1288.1% |
| Feb 2001 | Jul 2001 | 20 | 22.5% | +57.4% | +1719.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 3.6% | +1.6% | +1460.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Mar 2003 | 31 | 12.7% | +12.1% | +1391.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2008 | 5 | 5.9% | +36.9% | +574.8% |
| Dec 2008 | Dec 2008 | 1 | 0.1% | +31.8% | +550.0% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 11 | 19.9% | +40.2% | +585.7% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +50.8% | +541.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.3% | +105.6% | +2.5% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.6% | +7.5% | -37.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 9.4% | +7.1% | -36.8% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 17 | 26.7% | -7.6% | -37.4% |
| May 2023 | Ongoing | 143+ | 49.5% | Ongoing | -41.4% |
| Average | 19 | — | +31.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02