NIO
NIO Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Electric Vehicles Investor Relations →
NIO Inc. (NIO) closed at $5.04 as of 2026-02-02, trading 39.1% below its 200-week moving average of $8.28. This places NIO in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -43.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 18, NIO is in oversold territory.
Over the past 338 weeks of data, NIO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 47 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NIO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +59.6%.
With a market cap of $12.7 billion, NIO is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -160.0%. The stock trades at 23.1x book value.
Share count has increased 23.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NIO would have grown to $176, compared to $260 for the S&P 500. NIO has returned 9.0% annualized vs 15.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: NIO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NIO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying NIO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +72.8% after 12 months (median -38.0%), compared to +9.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 20% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +204.0% vs +38.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NIO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NIO has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +59.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2019 | Jun 2020 | 41 | 70.9% | +383.6% | +72.6% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 17.8% | -48.6% | -72.9% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2022 | 8 | 26.6% | -51.5% | -70.7% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 1.9% | -45.0% | -73.8% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 182+ | 82.9% | Ongoing | -73.5% |
| Average | 47 | — | +59.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02