NHI
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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) closed at $70.82 as of 2026-06-19, trading 16.3% above its 200-week moving average of $60.88. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 18.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, NHI is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.74 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1762 weeks of data, NHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NHI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.2%.
With a market cap of $3.4 billion, NHI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 9.9%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Share count has increased 11.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NHI would have grown to $2991, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. NHI has returned 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NHI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NHI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying NHI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.7% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.9% vs +41.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NHI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NHI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NHI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $70.80 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $77.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $84.47 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $93.50 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $104.69 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NHI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NHI has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +29.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1998 | Sep 1998 | 8 | 9.2% | -12.2% | +1532.8% |
| Oct 1998 | Dec 2001 | 169 | 70.0% | -40.8% | +1498.6% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 1.4% | +19.5% | +2260.3% |
| Feb 2002 | Mar 2002 | 3 | 2.2% | +15.5% | +2332.8% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 3 | 25.8% | +90.1% | +944.1% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 2 | 12.5% | +57.4% | +694.6% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +81.7% | +654.0% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 0.6% | +57.4% | +141.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 45.9% | +40.3% | +76.8% |
| Aug 2021 | Jun 2022 | 45 | 16.4% | +11.8% | +48.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 18 | 13.3% | -7.3% | +48.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 21 | 13.9% | +13.1% | +55.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 14 | 7.6% | +53.1% | +57.6% |
| Average | 25 | — | +29.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHI below its 200-week moving average?
No. National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) is currently 16.3% above its 200-week moving average of $60.88. It would need to fall to $60.88 to cross below the line.
What is NHI's 200-week moving average price?
National Health Investors, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $60.88 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NHI drops below its 200-week moving average?
NHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is NHI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NHI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 6.1%. Return on equity is 9.9%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NHI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NHI would have grown to $2991, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NHI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19