NHI
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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) closed at $67.80 as of 2026-09-18, trading 9.3% above its 200-week moving average of $62.02. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (2.32 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 1775 weeks of data, NHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NHI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.2%.
With a market cap of $3.3 billion, NHI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 10.7%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Share count has increased 11.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NHI would have grown to $2898, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. NHI has returned 10.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NHI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NHI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying NHI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.6% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.6% vs +41.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NHI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NHI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NHI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $65.35 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $68.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $72.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $76.81 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $81.58 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | $4.57 | $1.15 | -74.8% |
| 2026-05-04 | $0.86 | $0.77 | -10.5% |
| 2026-02-26 | $0.80 | $0.76 | -5.2% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.60 | $0.69 | +14.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NHI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NHI has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +29.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1998 | Sep 1998 | 8 | 9.4% | -12.2% | +1482.0% |
| Oct 1998 | Dec 2001 | 167 | 70.0% | -40.8% | +1448.8% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 1.6% | +19.5% | +2186.8% |
| Feb 2002 | Mar 2002 | 3 | 2.4% | +15.5% | +2257.0% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 3 | 26.0% | +90.1% | +911.6% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 2 | 12.6% | +57.4% | +669.8% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.8% | +81.7% | +630.5% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 0.7% | +57.4% | +134.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 45.7% | +40.3% | +71.3% |
| Aug 2021 | Jun 2022 | 45 | 16.5% | +11.8% | +43.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 13.4% | -7.3% | +43.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 21 | 14.0% | +13.1% | +50.2% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 14 | 7.7% | +53.1% | +52.7% |
| Average | 25 | — | +29.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHI below its 200-week moving average?
No. National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) is currently 9.3% above its 200-week moving average of $62.02. It would need to fall to $62.02 to cross below the line.
What is NHI's 200-week moving average price?
National Health Investors, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $62.02 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NHI drops below its 200-week moving average?
NHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is NHI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NHI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 5.2%. Return on equity is 10.7%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NHI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in NHI would have grown to $2898, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NHI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NHI pay a dividend?
Yes. National Health Investors, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 555.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18