NHI
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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) closed at $84.07 as of 2026-02-02, trading 43.7% above its 200-week moving average of $58.52. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 40.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 79, NHI is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1743 weeks of data, NHI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NHI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.2%.
With a market cap of $4.0 billion, NHI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.9%. Return on equity stands at 10.6%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NHI would have grown to $3511, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming NHI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: NHI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NHI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying NHI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.7% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.9% vs +41.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NHI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NHI has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +29.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1998 | Sep 1998 | 8 | 9.2% | -12.2% | +1816.7% |
| Oct 1998 | Dec 2001 | 169 | 70.0% | -40.8% | +1776.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 1.4% | +19.5% | +2670.7% |
| Feb 2002 | Mar 2002 | 3 | 2.2% | +15.5% | +2755.7% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 3 | 25.8% | +90.1% | +1125.6% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 2 | 12.5% | +57.4% | +832.7% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +81.7% | +785.1% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 0.6% | +57.4% | +183.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 45.9% | +40.3% | +107.5% |
| Aug 2021 | Jun 2022 | 45 | 16.4% | +11.8% | +74.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 18 | 13.3% | -7.3% | +73.8% |
| Feb 2023 | Jul 2023 | 21 | 13.9% | +13.1% | +82.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 14 | 7.6% | +53.1% | +85.1% |
| Average | 25 | — | +29.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02