NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Grocery Stores Investor Relations →
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) closed at $30.98 as of 2026-09-18, trading 26.2% above its 200-week moving average of $24.54. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 690 weeks of data, NGVC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NGVC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.1%.
With a market cap of $714 million, NGVC is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.2%. Return on equity stands at 21.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
Over the past 13.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NGVC would have grown to $120, compared to $564 for the S&P 500. NGVC has returned 1.4% annualized vs 14.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 42.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NGVC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NGVC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying NGVC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.8% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +52.2% vs +26.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NGVC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NGVC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NGVC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-19.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $26.41 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $29.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $32.73 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $37.19 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $43.05 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $0.52 | $0.48 | -7.7% |
| 2026-05-07 | $0.55 | $0.58 | +5.5% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.46 | $0.49 | +6.5% |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.42 | $0.51 | +21.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NGVC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NGVC has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +12.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2014 | Jan 2015 | 38 | 43.0% | +14.5% | +90.3% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 2 | 4.3% | -19.4% | +66.6% |
| Apr 2015 | Jul 2018 | 172 | 75.2% | -24.9% | +68.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 2.1% | -41.8% | +191.4% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 2 | 6.6% | -32.7% | +224.9% |
| Mar 2019 | May 2020 | 61 | 40.6% | -41.9% | +244.2% |
| Aug 2020 | Oct 2020 | 5 | 11.1% | +28.8% | +298.3% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 1.6% | +33.1% | +302.8% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 1 | 1.1% | +65.7% | +259.3% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 3.9% | +26.6% | +260.6% |
| Sep 2022 | May 2023 | 34 | 21.7% | +15.8% | +214.6% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 2 | 8.2% | +120.9% | +230.4% |
| Average | 27 | — | +12.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NGVC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) is currently 26.2% above its 200-week moving average of $24.54. It would need to fall to $24.54 to cross below the line.
What is NGVC's 200-week moving average price?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $24.54 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NGVC drops below its 200-week moving average?
NGVC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is NGVC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NGVC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 2.2%. Return on equity is 21.6%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NGVC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.2 years, $100 invested in NGVC would have grown to $120, compared to $564 for the S&P 500. That's 1.4% annualized vs 14.0% for the index. NGVC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NGVC pay a dividend?
Yes. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 194.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18