NFG
National Fuel Gas Company Energy - Oil & Gas Integrated Investor Relations →
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) closed at $75.89 as of 2026-06-19, trading 19.9% above its 200-week moving average of $63.31. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 22.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 19, NFG is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2724 weeks of data, NFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.9%.
With a market cap of $7.2 billion, NFG is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 20.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NFG would have grown to $1639, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. NFG has returned 8.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 545.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying NFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.1% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.0% vs +32.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NFG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NFG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $75.77 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $83.10 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $92.00 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $103.03 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $117.07 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NFG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +14.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Apr 1975 | 53 | 26.1% | -5.1% | +14961.5% |
| Apr 1975 | May 1975 | 2 | 4.8% | +9.5% | +16088.6% |
| Jul 1975 | Jul 1975 | 1 | 1.2% | +7.8% | +15453.7% |
| Aug 1975 | Sep 1975 | 5 | 2.5% | +15.0% | +15453.7% |
| Sep 1975 | Nov 1975 | 7 | 3.8% | +24.2% | +15871.3% |
| Nov 1975 | Jan 1976 | 6 | 2.4% | +20.1% | +15352.7% |
| Mar 1980 | Jun 1980 | 14 | 17.7% | +29.1% | +13194.5% |
| Nov 1980 | Nov 1980 | 1 | 0.6% | +9.2% | +12041.4% |
| Dec 1980 | Dec 1980 | 1 | 0.6% | +16.3% | +12041.4% |
| Sep 1981 | Oct 1981 | 4 | 9.7% | +7.5% | +11798.6% |
| Feb 1982 | Jun 1982 | 18 | 7.5% | +15.8% | +11680.8% |
| Jun 1982 | Jul 1982 | 2 | 5.0% | +24.1% | +12103.7% |
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 3 | 5.6% | +23.9% | +11739.4% |
| Nov 1994 | Nov 1994 | 1 | 2.2% | +32.6% | +1660.4% |
| Dec 1994 | Jan 1995 | 6 | 2.4% | +28.6% | +1634.8% |
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 1.8% | +34.4% | +801.4% |
| Nov 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | -3.0% | +651.9% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 2 | 1.6% | +10.3% | +631.8% |
| Jun 2002 | Mar 2003 | 43 | 20.0% | +19.9% | +630.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 40 | 27.4% | +68.0% | +341.0% |
| Feb 2012 | Feb 2012 | 1 | 1.0% | +20.4% | +145.9% |
| Mar 2012 | Jul 2012 | 15 | 10.5% | +31.3% | +144.7% |
| Jan 2013 | Jan 2013 | 1 | 1.3% | +50.4% | +132.9% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 1.6% | -13.1% | +87.3% |
| Jun 2015 | Jan 2017 | 83 | 35.1% | -0.6% | +85.3% |
| Apr 2017 | Jul 2017 | 14 | 7.9% | -0.4% | +91.9% |
| Sep 2017 | Oct 2017 | 2 | 1.0% | +2.5% | +79.4% |
| Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | 3 | 2.6% | +3.6% | +81.2% |
| Jan 2018 | Jul 2018 | 24 | 10.3% | +4.2% | +80.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.7% | -8.2% | +90.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.8% | -4.9% | +91.9% |
| Jul 2019 | Mar 2021 | 85 | 32.9% | -12.1% | +96.8% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +14.5% | +68.4% |
| Nov 2023 | Nov 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | +21.9% | +61.9% |
| Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | 15 | 8.3% | +24.9% | +61.6% |
| Average | 13 | — | +14.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFG below its 200-week moving average?
No. National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is currently 19.9% above its 200-week moving average of $63.31. It would need to fall to $63.31 to cross below the line.
What is NFG's 200-week moving average price?
National Fuel Gas Company's 200-week moving average is $63.31 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NFG drops below its 200-week moving average?
NFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is NFG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NFG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 19 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 20.8%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NFG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NFG would have grown to $1639, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NFG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19