NFE
New Fortress Energy Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas Midstream Investor Relations →
New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) closed at $12.22 as of 2026-09-18, trading 109.5% above its 200-week moving average of $5.83. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -94.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 98, NFE is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.62 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 350 weeks of data, NFE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NFE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +238.6%.
With a market cap of $70 million, NFE is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at -392.0%. The stock trades at -6.3x book value.
Share count has increased 36.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NFE would have grown to $-782, compared to $260 for the S&P 500. NFE has returned %!f(<nil>)% annualized vs 15.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NFE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NFE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying NFE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +309.5% after 12 months (median +393.0%), compared to +27.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +661.7% vs +38.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NFE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NFE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NFE has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +238.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 9 | 0.9% | +402.4% | -865.6% |
| May 2020 | Jun 2020 | 3 | 0.6% | +378.7% | -948.4% |
| Jul 2020 | Jan 2023 | 130 | 27.5% | +248.2% | -769.7% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 32.4% | -74.8% | +832.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 50+ | 95.1% | Ongoing | +553.5% |
| Average | 39 | — | +238.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFE below its 200-week moving average?
No. New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) is currently 109.5% above its 200-week moving average of $5.83. It would need to fall to $5.83 to cross below the line.
What is NFE's 200-week moving average price?
New Fortress Energy Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $5.83 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NFE drops below its 200-week moving average?
NFE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +238.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 39 weeks on average.
Is NFE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NFE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 98 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is -392.0%. Price-to-book is -6.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NFE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.8 years, $100 invested in NFE would have grown to $-782, compared to $260 for the S&P 500. That's %!f(<nil>)% annualized vs 15.2% for the index. NFE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18