NFBK
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) (NFBK) closed at $14.41 as of 2026-06-19, trading 32.3% above its 200-week moving average of $10.89. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, NFBK is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.24 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 923 weeks of data, NFBK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NFBK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.0%.
With a market cap of $602 million, NFBK is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 0.7%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NFBK would have grown to $275, compared to $1066 for the S&P 500. NFBK has returned 5.9% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -13.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NFBK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NFBK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying NFBK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.4% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +21.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.7% vs +44.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NFBK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NFBK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NFBK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $13.00 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $13.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $14.78 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $15.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $17.13 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NFBK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NFBK has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +6.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 4.1% | +23.5% | +217.8% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 12 | 17.2% | +27.6% | +210.4% |
| Apr 2009 | Jun 2009 | 5 | 3.7% | +44.0% | +218.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2010 | 8 | 7.7% | +12.9% | +189.9% |
| Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | 1 | 2.0% | +24.4% | +185.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Jun 2019 | 38 | 16.9% | +6.3% | +26.5% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.2% | -35.6% | +24.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 1.0% | -34.3% | +24.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2021 | 53 | 38.5% | +0.9% | +32.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 11.1% | -12.3% | +28.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Jan 2024 | 45 | 33.4% | -19.4% | +26.1% |
| Jan 2024 | Nov 2024 | 40 | 35.8% | +6.5% | +40.6% |
| Dec 2024 | May 2025 | 23 | 18.8% | +5.1% | +28.3% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 2.4% | +33.7% | +33.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 5 | 9.2% | N/A | +32.2% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 8 | 9.0% | N/A | +37.0% |
| Average | 16 | — | +6.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFBK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) (NFBK) is currently 32.3% above its 200-week moving average of $10.89. It would need to fall to $10.89 to cross below the line.
What is NFBK's 200-week moving average price?
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY)'s 200-week moving average is $10.89 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NFBK drops below its 200-week moving average?
NFBK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is NFBK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NFBK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Return on equity is 0.7%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NFBK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.8 years, $100 invested in NFBK would have grown to $275, compared to $1066 for the S&P 500. That's 5.9% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. NFBK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19