NFBK
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) (NFBK) closed at $14.99 as of 2026-06-26, trading 37.5% above its 200-week moving average of $10.91. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 32.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, NFBK is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 924 weeks of data, NFBK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NFBK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.0%.
With a market cap of $626 million, NFBK is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 0.7%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NFBK would have grown to $286, compared to $1040 for the S&P 500. NFBK has returned 6.1% annualized vs 14.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -13.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NFBK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NFBK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying NFBK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.7% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +21.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.7% vs +44.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NFBK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NFBK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NFBK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $13.00 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $13.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $14.78 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $15.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $17.13 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NFBK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NFBK has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +6.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 4.1% | +23.5% | +230.6% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 12 | 17.2% | +27.6% | +222.9% |
| Apr 2009 | Jun 2009 | 5 | 3.7% | +44.0% | +231.3% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2010 | 8 | 7.7% | +12.9% | +201.6% |
| Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | 1 | 2.0% | +24.4% | +197.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Jun 2019 | 38 | 16.9% | +6.3% | +31.6% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.2% | -35.6% | +29.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 1.0% | -34.3% | +30.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2021 | 53 | 38.5% | +0.9% | +37.8% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 11.1% | -12.3% | +33.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Jan 2024 | 45 | 33.4% | -19.4% | +31.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Nov 2024 | 40 | 35.8% | +6.5% | +46.2% |
| Dec 2024 | May 2025 | 23 | 18.8% | +5.1% | +33.5% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 2.4% | +33.7% | +39.1% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 5 | 9.2% | N/A | +37.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | 8 | 9.0% | N/A | +42.5% |
| Average | 16 | — | +6.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFBK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) (NFBK) is currently 37.5% above its 200-week moving average of $10.91. It would need to fall to $10.91 to cross below the line.
What is NFBK's 200-week moving average price?
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY)'s 200-week moving average is $10.91 as of 2026-06-26. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NFBK drops below its 200-week moving average?
NFBK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is NFBK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NFBK as of 2026-06-26: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Return on equity is 0.7%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NFBK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.8 years, $100 invested in NFBK would have grown to $286, compared to $1040 for the S&P 500. That's 6.1% annualized vs 14.1% for the index. NFBK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NFBK pay a dividend?
Yes. Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (Staten Island, NY) currently pays a dividend yield of 347.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-26