NEXT
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NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) closed at $7.33 as of 2026-03-20, trading 13.7% above its 200-week moving average of $6.44. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -10.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, NEXT is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 3.6x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 513 weeks of data, NEXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 53 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NEXT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.5%.
With a market cap of $1942 million, NEXT is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -21.2%. The stock trades at 20.4x book value.
Share count has increased 84.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 9.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NEXT would have grown to $74, compared to $364 for the S&P 500. NEXT has returned -3.0% annualized vs 13.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 15 open-market purchases totaling $62,636,981. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NEXT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NEXT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying NEXT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.5% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +17.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -21.0% vs +29.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NEXT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NEXT has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +15.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2017 | Sep 2017 | 7 | 15.5% | -32.7% | -24.0% |
| Nov 2017 | Mar 2022 | 228 | 83.0% | -47.4% | -23.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 3.0% | +35.2% | +82.8% |
| Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | 7 | 3.9% | +106.9% | +56.0% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 23+ | 24.4% | Ongoing | +20.2% |
| Average | 53 | — | +15.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEXT below its 200-week moving average?
No. NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) is currently 13.7% above its 200-week moving average of $6.44. It would need to fall to $6.44 to cross below the line.
What is NEXT's 200-week moving average price?
NextDecade Corporation's 200-week moving average is $6.44 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NEXT drops below its 200-week moving average?
NEXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 53 weeks on average.
Is NEXT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NEXT as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -21.2%. Price-to-book is 20.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NEXT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9.9 years, $100 invested in NEXT would have grown to $74, compared to $364 for the S&P 500. That's -3.0% annualized vs 13.9% for the index. NEXT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20