NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) - Is It Below The 200-Week Line?

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YES

18.9% BELOW

↓ Approaching Was -18.2% last week

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+

Buy Threshold $6.46

14-Week RSI 37

NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) closed at $5.24 as of 2026-02-02, trading 18.9% below its 200-week moving average of $6.46. This places NEXT in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -18.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 507 weeks of data, NEXT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 52 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NEXT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.5%.

With a market cap of $1388 million, NEXT is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -1.3%. The stock trades at 9.0x book value.

Share count has increased 116.1% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 9.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NEXT would have grown to $53, compared to $386 for the S&P 500. NEXT has returned -6.3% annualized vs 14.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 15 open-market purchases totaling $62,636,981. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while NEXT is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.

Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Growth of $100: NEXT vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After NEXT Crosses Below the Line?

Across 5 historical episodes, buying NEXT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.5% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +17.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -21.0% vs +29.3% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NEXT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Insider Buying Activity

13 conviction buys in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases). 🔥 Cluster Buy Detected

Date	Insider	Title	Value	Shares	Position +%
2025-12-12	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$9,399,378	1,651,971	+3.9%
2025-12-10	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$5,742,414	932,598	+2.2%
2025-12-05	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$3,910,470	636,963	+1.5%
2025-12-02	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$3,766,336	627,208	+1.4%
2025-11-26	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$5,167,887	905,753	+2.1%
2025-11-21	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$4,495,461	767,107	+1.8%
2025-11-19	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$6,323,822	1,064,424	+2.5%
2025-11-14	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$4,287,655	704,664	+1.6%
2025-11-11	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$3,591,563	591,837	+1.4%
2025-09-24	HANWHA AEROSPACE CO., LTD	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$7,010,032	1,001,329	+2.3%
2025-09-16	BARDIN HILL INVESTMENT PARTNERS L.P.	Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security	$2,492,899	357,021	N/A
2025-09-12	SCHATZMAN MATTHEW K.	Chief Executive Officer	$2,009,628	281,500	N/A
2025-09-12	VRATTOS WILLIAM	Director	$3,656,200	500,000	+54.2%

Historical Touches

NEXT has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +15.5% after recovery.

Crossed Below	Recovered	Weeks	Max Depth	1-Year Return	Return Since Touch
Jul 2017	Sep 2017	7	15.5%	-32.7%	-45.7%
Nov 2017	Mar 2022	228	83.0%	-47.4%	-45.5%
Mar 2023	Mar 2023	1	3.0%	+35.2%	+30.7%
Aug 2024	Sep 2024	7	3.9%	+106.9%	+11.5%
Oct 2025	Ongoing	17+	24.4%	Ongoing	-14.1%
Average		52	—	+15.5%	—

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02