NEU
NewMarket Corporation Basic Materials - Specialty Chemicals Investor Relations →
NewMarket Corporation (NEU) closed at $891.87 as of 2026-09-18, trading 58.4% above its 200-week moving average of $563.08. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 57.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.30 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, NEU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NEU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.7%.
With a market cap of $8.2 billion, NEU is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 25.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NEU would have grown to $3060, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. NEU has returned 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 110.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NEU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NEU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying NEU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.3% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +20.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.4% vs +41.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NEU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NEU would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NEU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $735.60 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $807.57 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $895.16 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1004.05 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1143.10 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-23 | $5.93 | $6.06 | +2.2% |
| 2019-07-31 | $5.16 | $6.63 | +28.5% |
| 2019-04-24 | $5.81 | $5.57 | -4.1% |
| 2019-02-19 | $4.66 | $5.56 | +19.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NEU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NEU has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +22.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1981 | Aug 1982 | 61 | 32.7% | -31.8% | +29688.7% |
| Sep 1982 | Sep 1982 | 1 | 3.5% | +120.8% | +34260.2% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 2 | 6.3% | +29.4% | +4254.8% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 3 | 2.5% | +12.5% | +3261.5% |
| Nov 1994 | Jan 1995 | 8 | 8.1% | +18.5% | +3102.2% |
| Jan 1995 | Apr 1995 | 9 | 3.1% | +12.2% | +3140.3% |
| Mar 1996 | May 1996 | 6 | 7.3% | -4.1% | +3161.3% |
| May 1996 | Apr 2003 | 361 | 81.8% | -4.6% | +2925.6% |
| May 2003 | Jun 2003 | 5 | 11.5% | +122.8% | +14458.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2009 | 25 | 37.6% | +151.7% | +3090.7% |
| Oct 2017 | Feb 2018 | 15 | 4.5% | +2.7% | +168.2% |
| Mar 2018 | Jun 2018 | 14 | 9.5% | +10.4% | +167.3% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 6 | 6.3% | +19.6% | +177.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 5 | 7.7% | +20.8% | +164.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 4.3% | +23.8% | +164.2% |
| Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | 1 | 0.4% | +15.3% | +161.1% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2.9% | +14.7% | +168.0% |
| Jun 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.0% | +5.9% | +162.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2020 | 8 | 10.1% | -0.5% | +163.6% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 5 | 5.4% | -13.5% | +156.9% |
| Jul 2020 | Jan 2021 | 23 | 15.0% | -14.0% | +170.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Mar 2023 | 112 | 23.4% | -12.6% | +156.0% |
| Average | 31 | — | +22.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEU below its 200-week moving average?
No. NewMarket Corporation (NEU) is currently 58.4% above its 200-week moving average of $563.08. It would need to fall to $563.08 to cross below the line.
What is NEU's 200-week moving average price?
NewMarket Corporation's 200-week moving average is $563.08 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NEU drops below its 200-week moving average?
NEU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is NEU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NEU as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is 25.1%. Price-to-book is 4.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NEU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in NEU would have grown to $3060, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NEU has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NEU pay a dividend?
Yes. NewMarket Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 135.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18