NEM
Newmont Corporation Materials - Gold Mining Investor Relations →
Newmont Corporation (NEM) closed at $103.79 as of 2026-06-19, trading 86.7% above its 200-week moving average of $55.59. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 81.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, NEM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 44 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NEM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.1%.
With a market cap of $110.8 billion, NEM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 25.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Share count has increased 37.3% over three years, indicating dilution. NEM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NEM would have grown to $558, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. NEM has returned 5.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 88.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NEM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NEM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying NEM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.9% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +12.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.5% vs +27.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NEM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NEM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NEM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $101.39 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $109.86 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $119.89 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $131.92 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $146.64 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NEM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NEM has crossed below its 200-week MA 44 times with an average 1-year return of +21.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 1.6% | -23.3% | +1254.0% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1982 | 58 | 41.7% | -6.5% | +1415.9% |
| Sep 1983 | Oct 1983 | 1 | 1.1% | -26.4% | +1345.2% |
| Oct 1983 | Nov 1983 | 3 | 4.1% | -24.7% | +1383.6% |
| Jan 1984 | Feb 1984 | 7 | 5.8% | -25.3% | +1337.7% |
| Apr 1984 | Jul 1985 | 65 | 34.0% | -6.6% | +1308.7% |
| Jul 1985 | Aug 1985 | 2 | 2.6% | +6.9% | +1503.0% |
| Sep 1985 | Sep 1985 | 2 | 5.7% | +49.0% | +1565.2% |
| Mar 1986 | Apr 1986 | 1 | 2.3% | +107.4% | +1458.2% |
| Apr 1986 | May 1986 | 4 | 8.1% | +120.2% | +1453.9% |
| Jun 1986 | Aug 1986 | 7 | 7.0% | +98.5% | +1411.8% |
| Oct 1990 | Jun 1991 | 37 | 15.2% | +8.5% | +493.0% |
| Jul 1991 | Sep 1991 | 9 | 9.5% | +33.2% | +477.9% |
| Nov 1991 | Nov 1991 | 1 | 0.7% | +18.9% | +464.3% |
| Dec 1991 | Dec 1991 | 1 | 0.5% | +5.0% | +458.5% |
| Mar 1992 | May 1992 | 7 | 4.8% | +16.3% | +460.3% |
| Nov 1992 | Mar 1993 | 18 | 7.8% | +44.9% | +447.6% |
| Dec 1994 | Jan 1995 | 5 | 5.6% | +27.9% | +366.9% |
| Jan 1995 | Mar 1995 | 6 | 5.6% | +68.4% | +389.2% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 1.0% | +26.1% | +336.5% |
| Jan 1997 | Feb 1997 | 6 | 8.5% | -37.6% | +295.7% |
| Mar 1997 | Sep 1997 | 28 | 21.1% | -34.5% | +276.2% |
| Oct 1997 | Aug 2001 | 200 | 63.8% | -43.6% | +282.2% |
| Aug 2001 | Sep 2001 | 2 | 1.8% | +38.1% | +658.6% |
| Nov 2001 | Jan 2002 | 10 | 7.8% | +27.8% | +693.4% |
| Oct 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 0.6% | +10.7% | +266.0% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 6 | 4.1% | +19.8% | +251.8% |
| Apr 2007 | Sep 2007 | 20 | 11.5% | +6.1% | +255.7% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 2 | 1.7% | -6.7% | +235.4% |
| Aug 2008 | May 2009 | 41 | 47.2% | -3.7% | +243.4% |
| Jun 2009 | Aug 2009 | 13 | 15.4% | +20.8% | +231.2% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 5.6% | +49.2% | +245.2% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 2.4% | +41.2% | +240.2% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 3.0% | +29.4% | +244.3% |
| Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 8 | 9.0% | -14.8% | +199.6% |
| Jun 2012 | Aug 2012 | 10 | 10.7% | -35.1% | +196.1% |
| Oct 2012 | Apr 2016 | 179 | 53.4% | -44.7% | +189.3% |
| Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 5 | 1.3% | +33.8% | +333.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 2.6% | +36.0% | +332.8% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2019 | 3 | 3.4% | +104.7% | +315.8% |
| Jul 2022 | Jan 2023 | 23 | 18.9% | -2.1% | +156.0% |
| Jan 2023 | Aug 2024 | 80 | 38.1% | -28.2% | +126.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2025 | 19 | 19.8% | +82.5% | +135.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.9% | +161.5% | +138.5% |
| Average | 20 | — | +21.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Newmont Corporation (NEM) is currently 86.7% above its 200-week moving average of $55.59. It would need to fall to $55.59 to cross below the line.
What is NEM's 200-week moving average price?
Newmont Corporation's 200-week moving average is $55.59 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NEM drops below its 200-week moving average?
NEM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 44 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is NEM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NEM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 8.8%. Return on equity is 25.8%. Price-to-book is 3.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NEM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in NEM would have grown to $558, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NEM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NEM pay a dividend?
Yes. Newmont Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 96.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19